FIDES: A Concordance Protocol for LLM-Generated Trading Strategies

arXiv:2608.23308v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: An LLM asked for a trading strategy returns three artifacts at once: a natural-language rationale, an executable implementation, and once run, a track record. Whether these are the same object is rarely checked. We present FIDES, a measurement protocol that treats them as three views to be reconciled rather than one deliverable to be graded. Through dual delivery, a single model call returns both a natural-language strategy with an explicit claimed edge and a self-contained strategy(df) function. FIDES executes the code in a sandbox against a lag-one out-of-sample backtest and scores three concordance gaps: say to do, do to real, and say to result. On 8 liquid US ETFs across four models plus a two-stage elicitation arm, 40 strategies, 2023 to 2024 out-of-sample, three findings stand out. First, concordance does not predict profit: only 2 of 40 strategies beat buy-and-hold, and a plain sma(50,200) rule outperforms every model's mean Sharpe. Second, self-assessment is badly calibrated: 32 of 40 strategies claim to beat buy-and-hold and exactly one does. Third, swapping the language-code judge for a second model flips say to do on more than half of items. Injecting Close.shift(-1) drops do to real by 0.33 on average, while our runtime future-information probe fired on neither clean nor injected code. We frame FIDES as a protocol for measurement fidelity, not a claim about market performance.

Abstract:An LLM asked for a trading strategy returns three artifacts at once: a natural-language rationale, an executable implementation, and once run, a track record. Whether these are the same object is rarely checked. We present FIDES, a measurement protocol that treats them as three views to be reconciled rather than one deliverable to be graded. Through dual delivery, a single model call returns both a natural-language strategy with an explicit claimed edge and a self-contained strategy(df) function. FIDES executes the code in a sandbox against a lag-one out-of-sample backtest and scores three concordance gaps: say to do, do to real, and say to result. On 8 liquid US ETFs across four models plus a two-stage elicitation arm, 40 strategies, 2023 to 2024 out-of-sample, three findings stand out. First, concordance does not predict profit: only 2 of 40 strategies beat buy-and-hold, and a plain sma(50,200) rule outperforms every model's mean Sharpe. Second, self-assessment is badly calibrated: 32 of 40 strategies claim to beat buy-and-hold and exactly one does. Third, swapping the language-code judge for a second model flips say to do on more than half of items. Injecting this http URL(-1) drops do to real by 0.33 on average, while our runtime future-information probe fired on neither clean nor injected code. We frame FIDES as a protocol for measurement fidelity, not a claim about market performance.

Cryptography and Security (cs.CR); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.23308 [cs.CR]

(or arXiv:2608.23308v1 [cs.CR] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.23308 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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FIDES: A Concordance Protocol for LLM-Generated Trading Strategies

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