Equal-information evaluation of credit assignment in modular financial reinforcement learning

arXiv:2610.14750v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Credit assignment in modular financial reinforcement learning is difficult to evaluate because an attributed signal may improve a component loss without adding decision-relevant information or improving economic outcomes. We propose an evaluation framework combining equal-information reconstruction controls, fixed-utility comparisons and prespecified downstream guardrails. The framework is instantiated in an attribution-guided modular trading architecture and tested in three controlled studies covering update allocation, supervision-target representation and portfolio risk control. We find that residual-based allocation is exactly reproduced by an ordinary loss-budget control under the disclosed interface; direct shortfall supervision improves component prediction but fails decoded-outcome preservation; and component-wise critic supervision worsens risk-condition certainty equivalent and drawdown relative to scalar supervision under fixed utility. These results identify three distinct evaluation failures: redundant attribution signals, representation-induced prediction trade-offs, and misalignment between component supervision and downstream risk outcomes. A preserved historical engineering case further shows why module-level learning claims require run-level provenance. The contribution is a reusable methodology for evaluating credit assignment in expert systems operating under partial observability, delayed feedback and economic risk constraints.

Abstract:Credit assignment in modular financial reinforcement learning is difficult to evaluate because an attributed signal may improve a component loss without adding decision-relevant information or improving economic outcomes. We propose an evaluation framework combining equal-information reconstruction controls, fixed-utility comparisons and prespecified downstream guardrails. The framework is instantiated in an attribution-guided modular trading architecture and tested in three controlled studies covering update allocation, supervision-target representation and portfolio risk control. We find that residual-based allocation is exactly reproduced by an ordinary loss-budget control under the disclosed interface; direct shortfall supervision improves component prediction but fails decoded-outcome preservation; and component-wise critic supervision worsens risk-condition certainty equivalent and drawdown relative to scalar supervision under fixed utility. These results identify three distinct evaluation failures: redundant attribution signals, representation-induced prediction trade-offs, and misalignment between component supervision and downstream risk outcomes. A preserved historical engineering case further shows why module-level learning claims require run-level provenance. The contribution is a reusable methodology for evaluating credit assignment in expert systems operating under partial observability, delayed feedback and economic risk constraints.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2610.14750 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2610.14750v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.14750 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Equal-information evaluation of credit assignment in modular financial reinforcement learning

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