EnergyEminence: Source-Aware Environmental Calibration and Evaluation in a Physics-Grounded Grid Digital Twin

Abstract:Power-grid digital twins must combine data-driven prediction with physically meaningful state evolution while preserving the provenance of environmental observations. This paper presents an early-stage EnergyEminence testbed that couples an IEEE 118-bus-style graph-temporal predictor, nonlinear AC cascade simulation, and operator-dashboard-like temporal replay. In addition, we introduce a shared bounded calibration that converts wildfire-detection confidence and spatial extent into source-comparable wildfire interpretable and explainable evidence. We then evaluate it with visually diverse fire and hard-negative videos. Sixteen synthetic environmental videos are curated to generate 160 source-tracked grid scenarios, and a source-video-disjoint test yields 10 true positives, 8 false positives, 22 true negatives, and no false negatives. The errors occur in stressed, non-cascading scenarios conditioned on an unseen growing-fire source. Our diagnostic then reveals environmental shortcut learning that is obscured by scenario-level random splitting. The paper therefore contributes a data-centric and inspectable evaluation workflow for multimodal grid-resilience models, together with evidence supporting separation of environmental alerting from electrical cascade inference

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Image and Video Processing (eess.IV)

arXiv:2609.36215 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.36215v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.36215 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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