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This research proposes a novel survival analysis algorithm leveraging Reinforcement Learning principles, specifically Deep Q-Networks, to enhance temporal consistency in longitudinal data modeling. By introducing delayed target networks, the method achieves more stable training and superior performance on long-sequence datasets compared to standard baselines. The work advances machine learning techniques for handling complex temporal dependencies within large-scale predictive frameworks.
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Deep End-to-End Survival Analysis with Temporal Consistency

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2410.06786v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In this study, we present a novel Survival Analysis algorithm designed to efficiently handle large-scale longitudinal data. Our approach draws inspiration from Reinforcement Learning principles, particularly the Deep Q-Network paradigm, extending Temporal Learning concepts to Survival Regression. A central argument in our method relies on temporal consistency, a recursive consistency condition between survival predictions made at consecutive states. Our framework introduces a delayed target network that decouples the generation of temporally consistent training targets from model updates, providing a more stable training signal while enabling mini-batch optimization and end-to-end training. Additionally, it supports arbitrarily complex architectures, enabling the modeling of intricate temporal dependencies. Through numerous experiments we provide empirical evidence demonstrating our framework's ability to exploit temporal consistency across datasets of varying sizes. Moreover, our algorithm outperforms benchmarks on datasets with long sequences, demonstrating its ability to capture long-term patterns. Finally, ablation studies show that the degree of target delay has a substantial effect on predictive performance and training variability. Across two distinct survival model families, delayed target updates consistently improve over the same-timescale baseline.

Abstract:In this study, we present a novel Survival Analysis algorithm designed to efficiently handle large-scale longitudinal data. Our approach draws inspiration from Reinforcement Learning principles, particularly the Deep Q-Network paradigm, extending Temporal Learning concepts to Survival Regression. A central argument in our method relies on temporal consistency, a recursive consistency condition between survival predictions made at consecutive states. Our framework introduces a delayed target network that decouples the generation of temporally consistent training targets from model updates, providing a more stable training signal while enabling mini-batch optimization and end-to-end training. Additionally, it supports arbitrarily complex architectures, enabling the modeling of intricate temporal dependencies. Through numerous experiments we provide empirical evidence demonstrating our framework's ability to exploit temporal consistency across datasets of varying sizes. Moreover, our algorithm outperforms benchmarks on datasets with long sequences, demonstrating its ability to capture long-term patterns. Finally, ablation studies show that the degree of target delay has a substantial effect on predictive performance and training variability. Across two distinct survival model families, delayed target updates consistently improve over the same-timescale baseline.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2410.06786 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2410.06786v2 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.06786 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 267 words

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