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This research demonstrates how Large Language Models and vision-language architectures can bypass satellite embargoes by projecting blast radii from weapon data onto archival maps to estimate infrastructure damage in conflict zones. By integrating 2D segmentation with depth-augmented pseudo-height maps, the system effectively resolves dense urban rooftops without requiring real-time imagery or post-strike access. The study establishes a hybrid zero-shot paradigm that significantly outperforms traditional methods for rapid humanitarian crisis mapping under data blackout conditions.
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Counting the Cost of War Under Satellite Embargo: Zero-Shot Estimation of Impacted Infrastructure

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2608.00119v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapid estimation of impacted structures - critical for conflict-zone humanitarian response - is frequently hindered by post-strike satellite data embargoes and imagery blackouts. We bypass this operational bottleneck by reframing impacted building mapping as a zero-shot geometric projection task on archival, pre-strike maps. Using coordinate and incident text from LiveUAMap and ArcGIS, Large Language Models extract weapon payloads (W) to project kinetic blast perimeters via Hopkinson-Cranz scaling (R_base = Z * W^(1/3)). To count exposed structures within these zones without post-strike imagery, we introduce two technical innovations: Adaptive Field-of-View to eliminate resolution (zoom) bias in 2D segmentation (SAMGeo), and 2.5D pseudo-height depth maps combined with segmentation masks to help Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) resolve overlapping, dense rooftops. Evaluated on 2026 Middle East conflict data, depth-augmented LVLMs dramatically outperform traditional segmentation in congested urban centers. This establishes a powerful hybrid paradigm for zero-shot crisis mapping: ultra-fast 2D segmentation for sparse rural zones, and depth-augmented LVLMs for dense urban environments.

Abstract:Rapid estimation of impacted structures - critical for conflict-zone humanitarian response - is frequently hindered by post-strike satellite data embargoes and imagery blackouts. We bypass this operational bottleneck by reframing impacted building mapping as a zero-shot geometric projection task on archival, pre-strike maps. Using coordinate and incident text from LiveUAMap and ArcGIS, Large Language Models extract weapon payloads (W) to project kinetic blast perimeters via Hopkinson-Cranz scaling (R_base = Z * W^(1/3)). To count exposed structures within these zones without post-strike imagery, we introduce two technical innovations: Adaptive Field-of-View to eliminate resolution (zoom) bias in 2D segmentation (SAMGeo), and 2.5D pseudo-height depth maps combined with segmentation masks to help Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) resolve overlapping, dense rooftops. Evaluated on 2026 Middle East conflict data, depth-augmented LVLMs dramatically outperform traditional segmentation in congested urban centers. This establishes a powerful hybrid paradigm for zero-shot crisis mapping: ultra-fast 2D segmentation for sparse rural zones, and depth-augmented LVLMs for dense urban environments.

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.00119 [cs.CV]

(or arXiv:2608.00119v1 [cs.CV] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.00119 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 258 words

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