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This research introduces "predictive sufficiency" as a metric to determine when external context is necessary versus recoverable from historical data in model-based reinforcement learning. By quantifying the gap between what an agent can learn from its own experience and what requires explicit context, the study provides a practical criterion for optimizing generalization without relying on reference policies. The findings challenge standard assumptions about environment dynamics, offering new pathways for building more robust AI agents that adapt to varying identification difficulties.
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Considering Context: When World Models Need Context Encoders

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2610.06651v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Methods for generalization in model-based reinforcement learning typically assume that an agent cannot recover the latent context governing the environment dynamics from its own experience, and therefore supplies it externally. We formalize and test this assumption with \emph{predictive sufficiency}, which quantifies what access to the context adds to next-step prediction under the visitation distribution an agent induces, and separates that quantity into a history-recoverable part, a residual requiring the true context, and the deficit added by a finite model. We classify context-aware algorithms by the predictive risk their conditioning set can target and demonstrate across environments of increasing identification difficulty that the headroom does not follow the MDP class. The same task under different priors leaves predictive headroom in one setting and nothing distinguishable from zero in another, where the agent's behavior implicitly identifies the context and any benefit of such a mechanism cannot be attributed to missing information. Where headroom persists, the learned state exposes it only partially, and adding the true context still lowers the risk. Our contribution is a practical criterion for matching contextual mechanisms to the information available to them, estimated from the ordinary trained agent without a reference policy.

Abstract:Methods for generalization in model-based reinforcement learning typically assume that an agent cannot recover the latent context governing the environment dynamics from its own experience, and therefore supplies it externally. We formalize and test this assumption with \emph{predictive sufficiency}, which quantifies what access to the context adds to next-step prediction under the visitation distribution an agent induces, and separates that quantity into a history-recoverable part, a residual requiring the true context, and the deficit added by a finite model. We classify context-aware algorithms by the predictive risk their conditioning set can target and demonstrate across environments of increasing identification difficulty that the headroom does not follow the MDP class. The same task under different priors leaves predictive headroom in one setting and nothing distinguishable from zero in another, where the agent's behavior implicitly identifies the context and any benefit of such a mechanism cannot be attributed to missing information. Where headroom persists, the learned state exposes it only partially, and adding the true context still lowers the risk. Our contribution is a practical criterion for matching contextual mechanisms to the information available to them, estimated from the ordinary trained agent without a reference policy.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2610.06651 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2610.06651v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.06651 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 288 words

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