Conformal Risk-Averse Decision Making with Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Control

Abstract:We study risk-averse decision making, in which an agent selects actions while being uncertain about the true system state. The risk is measured via optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) metrics, which generalize popular criteria such as mean-variance risk and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). We characterize the optimal policy under known distributions, and show that it reduces to a prediction set-based solution for the CVaR. This provides an operational interpretation of conformal prediction-type prediction sets. For unknown distributions, we develop a data-driven calibration strategy, based on a synthetic model for the likelihood and held-out calibration data, yielding high-probability control of the OCE risk. The approach is evaluated on two wireless beamforming settings.

Machine Learning (stat.ML); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Information Theory (cs.IT); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2608.28179 [stat.ML]

(or arXiv:2608.28179v1 [stat.ML] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.28179 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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