Comparative Field Deployment of Reinforcement Learning and Model Predictive Control for Residential HVAC

arXiv:2510.01475v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant performance improvements over today's control methods for residential Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC), but deploying MPC often requires substantial engineering effort. Reinforcement Learning (RL) may offer comparable performance with easier deployment, but its practical application for residential HVAC remains largely undemonstrated, leaving open questions related to occupant comfort and data requirements. To investigate these issues, we deployed one MPC variant and one model-based RL variant for one month each in an occupied house in a cold climate. The controllers adjusted an air-to-air heat pump's thermostat temperature setpoint based on measurements of the indoor temperature and the electric power used for heating. Relative to constant-setpoint operation, MPC saved 18.1\% (95\% confidence interval: 4.4 to 30.9\%) of weather-normalized heat pump energy and RL saved 20.9\% (2.6 to 38.3\%). MPC maintained acceptable occupant comfort. RL kept the house cooler, particularly during an initial adaptation phase, leading to three reports of occupant discomfort. The two algorithms had similar data requirements. We estimate that for a fresh deployment in another house, RL would take about one-third less engineering effort than MPC. While RL reduces deployment effort, it faces difficulties related to safe controller initialization and to mismatches between the modeled and true state and action spaces.

Abstract:Model Predictive Control (MPC) has demonstrated significant performance improvements over today's control methods for residential Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC), but deploying MPC often requires substantial engineering effort. Reinforcement Learning (RL) may offer comparable performance with easier deployment, but its practical application for residential HVAC remains largely undemonstrated, leaving open questions related to occupant comfort and data requirements. To investigate these issues, we deployed one MPC variant and one model-based RL variant for one month each in an occupied house in a cold climate. The controllers adjusted an air-to-air heat pump's thermostat temperature setpoint based on measurements of the indoor temperature and the electric power used for heating. Relative to constant-setpoint operation, MPC saved 18.1\% (95\% confidence interval: 4.4 to 30.9\%) of weather-normalized heat pump energy and RL saved 20.9\% (2.6 to 38.3\%). MPC maintained acceptable occupant comfort. RL kept the house cooler, particularly during an initial adaptation phase, leading to three reports of occupant discomfort. The two algorithms had similar data requirements. We estimate that for a fresh deployment in another house, RL would take about one-third less engineering effort than MPC. While RL reduces deployment effort, it faces difficulties related to safe controller initialization and to mismatches between the modeled and true state and action spaces.

26 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables. Under review for Applied Energy

Systems and Control (eess.SY); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2510.01475 [eess.SY]

(or arXiv:2510.01475v2 [eess.SY] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2510.01475 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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Comparative Field Deployment of Reinforcement Learning and Model Predictive Control for Residential HVAC

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