Causal Modelling of Support Interventions for Student Competency Assessment

Abstract:Accurate assessment of student competencies is essential for enabling educators to identify individual needs, design targeted interventions, and evaluate the effectiveness of educational strategies. Empirical assessment procedures are typically grounded in psychometric models, such as item response theory, which relate student competence levels to performance on assessment tasks. In this paper, we advocate adopting a structural causal modelling approach to educational assessment, moving beyond probabilistic belief updating toward a framework that explicitly supports interventional and counterfactual reasoning. We propose a corresponding protocol for its construction and analyse the practical relevance of forms of reasoning that remain inaccessible to standard associative models, including the explicit modelling of interventions such as hints and the related counterfactual scenario analysis. Although our protocol requires the structural equations to be elicited from experts, the necessary information is purely logical and does not rely on probabilistic, less tenable assumptions. We illustrate the approach using data from an assessment that employs complex tasks designed to measure compulsory school student algorithmic skills.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.24632 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2608.24632v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.24632 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.