aiqbench analysis
This paper addresses critical bottlenecks in reinforcement learning by improving task sampling efficiency through advanced risk prediction models that mitigate temporal bias and sparse data issues. By reframing risk prediction as an in-context sequence modeling problem, the authors achieve more reliable difficulty estimates for optimizing large language models and robust meta-RL without extra rollouts. The work represents a significant methodological advance in sample-efficient learning strategies essential for scaling adaptive AI systems.
Bridging Risk Approximation Gaps in Model Predictive Task Sampling via In-Context Modeling
arXiv:2610.14913v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reinforcement learning (RL) is essential for adaptive decision-making, e.g., robust Meta-RL and domain randomization (DR), and efficient post-training of large language models (LLMs), where tasks are commonly structured as Markov decision processes or prompts. A central bottleneck in all these settings is the cost of agent-environment interactions required for task selection and policy optimization. Model predictive task sampling (MPTS) has emerged as a promising approach to improve sample efficiency by querying informative tasks via a risk predictive model (RPM) trained on optimization history. However, existing RPMs suffer from two failure modes: (i) sparse optimization histories, which limit RPMs' generalization across the task space, and (ii) a one-step lag in risk approximation, which causes biased difficulty estimation as the policy evolves. This work formalizes these failure modes, derives lagged-risk decompositions that expose the resulting temporal bias, and recasts risk prediction as an in-context sequence modeling problem. The developed RPM integrates a one-step look-ahead mechanism with a temporal-weighted sliding window to mitigate data non-stationarity and scarcity, without requiring additional rollouts. Empirically, our approach yields more reliable difficulty estimates and consistent performance gains across robust Meta-RL, DR, and prompt curriculum RL post-training of LLMs.
Abstract:Reinforcement learning (RL) is essential for adaptive decision-making, e.g., robust Meta-RL and domain randomization (DR), and efficient post-training of large language models (LLMs), where tasks are commonly structured as Markov decision processes or prompts. A central bottleneck in all these settings is the cost of agent-environment interactions required for task selection and policy optimization. Model predictive task sampling (MPTS) has emerged as a promising approach to improve sample efficiency by querying informative tasks via a risk predictive model (RPM) trained on optimization history. However, existing RPMs suffer from two failure modes: (i) sparse optimization histories, which limit RPMs' generalization across the task space, and (ii) a one-step lag in risk approximation, which causes biased difficulty estimation as the policy evolves. This work formalizes these failure modes, derives lagged-risk decompositions that expose the resulting temporal bias, and recasts risk prediction as an in-context sequence modeling problem. The developed RPM integrates a one-step look-ahead mechanism with a temporal-weighted sliding window to mitigate data non-stationarity and scarcity, without requiring additional rollouts. Empirically, our approach yields more reliable difficulty estimates and consistent performance gains across robust Meta-RL, DR, and prompt curriculum RL post-training of LLMs.
Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2610.14913 [cs.AI]
(or arXiv:2610.14913v1 [cs.AI] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.14913 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 288 words
