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This research introduces a hybrid neural architecture integrating spatiotemporal permutation entropy and quantile regression to improve long-horizon fault prediction in industrial systems, directly addressing the need for uncertainty-aware prognostics. By combining Spiking Neural Networks with Transformers, the framework aims to capture weak degradation signatures that traditional point-estimate models often miss across distributed sensor networks. The study validates this approach on a nine-system dataset, offering a practical advancement over standard baselines like LSTM and LightGBM for complex system maintenance without proposing new foundational learning theory.
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Boosted Enhanced Quantile Regression Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy for Complex System Prognostics

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2507.14194v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper presents an integrative prognostic framework that combines Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy (STPE), Boosted Enhanced Quantile Regression Neural Networks (B-EQRNNs), Gated Temporal Attention, a Spiking Neural Network (SNN) refinement stage, and a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) classifier. The motivation is long-horizon fault prediction in distributed industrial electronic systems, where single-sensor or point-estimate models can miss weak spatially propagating degradation signatures and provide limited uncertainty information. The proposed pipeline first converts 70-channel sensor streams into multiscale STPE descriptors, then learns conditional quantile representations and attention-weighted temporal context before final Normal/Abnormal classification. Evaluation is reported on a nine-system industrial electronic-sensor dataset with 48-, 90-, and 168-hour prediction horizons. The comparison includes a tree-based LightGBM baseline and modern sequence baselines available under the same preprocessing protocol, including LSTM, Autoformer, and TCN models. The full pipeline reaches 81.17% accuracy at the 168-hour horizon and is evaluated with component ablations, computational-cost analysis, and an explicit reproducibility protocol. The contribution is therefore framed as a validated hybrid architecture for uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal prognostics rather than as a new standalone learning theory.

Abstract:This paper presents an integrative prognostic framework that combines Spatiotemporal Permutation Entropy (STPE), Boosted Enhanced Quantile Regression Neural Networks (B-EQRNNs), Gated Temporal Attention, a Spiking Neural Network (SNN) refinement stage, and a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) classifier. The motivation is long-horizon fault prediction in distributed industrial electronic systems, where single-sensor or point-estimate models can miss weak spatially propagating degradation signatures and provide limited uncertainty information. The proposed pipeline first converts 70-channel sensor streams into multiscale STPE descriptors, then learns conditional quantile representations and attention-weighted temporal context before final Normal/Abnormal classification. Evaluation is reported on a nine-system industrial electronic-sensor dataset with 48-, 90-, and 168-hour prediction horizons. The comparison includes a tree-based LightGBM baseline and modern sequence baselines available under the same preprocessing protocol, including LSTM, Autoformer, and TCN models. The full pipeline reaches 81.17% accuracy at the 168-hour horizon and is evaluated with component ablations, computational-cost analysis, and an explicit reproducibility protocol. The contribution is therefore framed as a validated hybrid architecture for uncertainty-aware spatiotemporal prognostics rather than as a new standalone learning theory.

Preliminary version of a predictive maintenance framework using spiking neural networks and entropy-based analysis. To be expanded in future publications with hardware implementations and real-time drift detection modules. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2501.05087

Signal Processing (eess.SP); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Systems and Control (eess.SY)

arXiv:2507.14194 [eess.SP]

(or arXiv:2507.14194v3 [eess.SP] for this version)

Full text under the publisher's open licence · 228 words

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