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Body size predicts how long ant workers live - but not how they age or how they die from heat
arXiv:2608.14245v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In social insects, mortality risk comprises distinct components that may not share the same predictors: lifespan duration, senescence trajectory, and thermal vulnerability. We tested these three axes in 18 Australian ant species using paired field-laboratory survival assays (2,363 cohort-day observations; 1,148 workers). Body size predicted duration (Cox HR = 0.67, p = 0.002), while colony size (p = 0.60) and the size x temperature interaction (p = 0.72) showed no detectable moderating effect. A weak but significant size x foraging-rate interaction was detected (LRT p = 0.014), suggesting that intrinsic physiology remains the most parsimonious explanation for the main size-longevity pattern, although ecological context may contribute. Senescence trajectory was associated with circadian niche rather than size: it was steepest in matinal species (Kruskal-Wallis p = 0.009; matinal vs. crepuscular p = 0.002) and was uncorrelated with body mass (Spearman p = 0.32). Thermal hazard plateaued above 20 degrees C (Delta AIC = -38; p < 0.001), with elevated thermal sensitivity in Rhytidoponera (Ectatomminae) above the plateau (5% per degree C, p = 0.015). Circadian regime and lineage identity, not body size, therefore emerge as the most climate-relevant axes, although they are strongly collinear (Cramer's V = 0.85). These results show that body size captures only one dimension of mortality risk and that size-based vulnerability indices may misrank taxa when senescence and thermal sensitivity are decoupled from body size.
Abstract:In social insects, mortality risk comprises distinct components that may not share the same predictors: lifespan duration, senescence trajectory, and thermal vulnerability. We tested these three axes in 18 Australian ant species using paired field-laboratory survival assays (2,363 cohort-day observations; 1,148 workers). Body size predicted duration (Cox HR = 0.67, p = 0.002), while colony size (p = 0.60) and the size x temperature interaction (p = 0.72) showed no detectable moderating effect. A weak but significant size x foraging-rate interaction was detected (LRT p = 0.014), suggesting that intrinsic physiology remains the most parsimonious explanation for the main size-longevity pattern, although ecological context may contribute. Senescence trajectory was associated with circadian niche rather than size: it was steepest in matinal species (Kruskal-Wallis p = 0.009; matinal vs. crepuscular p = 0.002) and was uncorrelated with body mass (Spearman p = 0.32). Thermal hazard plateaued above 20 degrees C (Delta AIC = -38; p < 0.001), with elevated thermal sensitivity in Rhytidoponera (Ectatomminae) above the plateau (5% per degree C, p = 0.015). Circadian regime and lineage identity, not body size, therefore emerge as the most climate-relevant axes, although they are strongly collinear (Cramer's V = 0.85). These results show that body size captures only one dimension of mortality risk and that size-based vulnerability indices may misrank taxa when senescence and thermal sensitivity are decoupled from body size.
Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE); Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2608.14245 [q-bio.PE]
(or arXiv:2608.14245v1 [q-bio.PE] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.14245 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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