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Billionaires fleeing California could turn a $30 billion tax windfall into a $39 billion loss, Stanford economists warn
Departures have already erased nearly 30% of Prop 40’s tax base, a new NBER paper estimates. The tax’s architects say the math assumes losses that won’t last.
Supporters of California’s proposed billionaire tax say it could raise $100 billion, with 90% of the proceeds earmarked for health care. A pair of Stanford economists warn it could instead leave the state $39 billion worse off in today’s dollars. Proposition 40, on California’s Nov. 3 ballot, would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of the state’s few hundred billionaires who were residents on Jan. 1, 2026. The tax would be due in 2027, and those who choose to spread payments over five years would pay more. Real estate, pensions, and most retirement accounts would…
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