Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with LLMs

arXiv:2609.22977v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Similarity-based retrieval is the dominant rule for conditioning large language models (LLMs) in in-context learning, retrieval-augmented generation, and prompt-based time series forecasting. The rule concentrates on near-duplicate candidates, an issue that has motivated diversity-aware retrieval but remains unexamined in other retrieval-conditioned pipelines. We study this issue using prompt-based time series forecasting as a test bed, where a learned prompt pool is retrieved by similarity. Dominant methods in this setting retrieve top-K entries by cosine similarity without redundancy control, producing a bias toward dominant temporal patterns while overlooking rare but informative events. We propose CASP-LLM, a coverage-aware semantic prompting framework that addresses this prompt selection bias by combining usage-tracking and saturating-gate techniques into a coverage regularizer that adds no learnable parameters. On six long-term benchmarks and the M4 short-term benchmark, CASP-LLM matches or improves on similarity-based LLM forecasters on most dataset-horizon settings, with the exceptions of Electricity, M4-Monthly, and the few-shot long-horizon setting. A controlled study locates the failure mode at the cross-batch usage level rather than per-retrieval redundancy: within-retrieval diversification such as MMR does not help, whereas regularizing anchor usage across training does.

Abstract:Similarity-based retrieval is the dominant rule for conditioning large language models (LLMs) in in-context learning, retrieval-augmented generation, and prompt-based time series forecasting. The rule concentrates on near-duplicate candidates, an issue that has motivated diversity-aware retrieval but remains unexamined in other retrieval-conditioned pipelines. We study this issue using prompt-based time series forecasting as a test bed, where a learned prompt pool is retrieved by similarity. Dominant methods in this setting retrieve top-K entries by cosine similarity without redundancy control, producing a bias toward dominant temporal patterns while overlooking rare but informative events. We propose CASP-LLM, a coverage-aware semantic prompting framework that addresses this prompt selection bias by combining usage-tracking and saturating-gate techniques into a coverage regularizer that adds no learnable parameters. On six long-term benchmarks and the M4 short-term benchmark, CASP-LLM matches or improves on similarity-based LLM forecasters on most dataset-horizon settings, with the exceptions of Electricity, M4-Monthly, and the few-shot long-horizon setting. A controlled study locates the failure mode at the cross-batch usage level rather than per-retrieval redundancy: within-retrieval diversification such as MMR does not help, whereas regularizing anchor usage across training does.

Accepted to Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2026. 24 pages, 8 figures, 15 tables

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Computation and Language (cs.CL)

arXiv:2609.22977 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.22977v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.22977 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Beyond Similarity: Coverage-Aware Prompt Selection for Time Series Forecasting with LLMs

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