Beyond Calibration: Temporal LLM Confidence Assessment Across Languages and Local Settings

arXiv:2610.27702v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models are expected to estimate their own uncertainty, with confidence signals used to guide retrieval, adaptive compute allocation, routing, and selective abstention. We investigate whether confidence signals measured at different temporal stages of problem solving encode distinct forms of epistemic information and remain reliable beyond English-centric settings. Inspired by classical meta-memory theory, we distinguish anticipatory pre-solve confidence (Feeling-of-Knowing, FOK) from retrospective post-solve confidence (Judgement-of-Learning, JOL). We evaluate these signals across two frontier LLMs, multiple reasoning domains, translated Marathi benchmarks, and a newly constructed benchmark of genuinely local Marathi factual questions. Across settings, the cheaper pre-solve signal remains weakly calibrated, while post-solve confidence generally provides stronger epistemic alignment despite its additional inference cost. Confidence behaviour transfers surprisingly well under direct language translation, with calibration trends largely preserved between English and Marathi, but degrades substantially on local Marathi knowledge, suggesting that linguistic transfer alone is insufficient for region-specific information needs. Finally, hallucinated responses maintain persistently elevated confidence after answer generation, highlighting important limitations of current LLM self-assessment mechanisms.

Abstract:Large language models are expected to estimate their own uncertainty, with confidence signals used to guide retrieval, adaptive compute allocation, routing, and selective abstention. We investigate whether confidence signals measured at different temporal stages of problem solving encode distinct forms of epistemic information and remain reliable beyond English-centric settings. Inspired by classical meta-memory theory, we distinguish anticipatory pre-solve confidence (Feeling-of-Knowing, FOK) from retrospective post-solve confidence (Judgement-of-Learning, JOL). We evaluate these signals across two frontier LLMs, multiple reasoning domains, translated Marathi benchmarks, and a newly constructed benchmark of genuinely local Marathi factual questions. Across settings, the cheaper pre-solve signal remains weakly calibrated, while post-solve confidence generally provides stronger epistemic alignment despite its additional inference cost. Confidence behaviour transfers surprisingly well under direct language translation, with calibration trends largely preserved between English and Marathi, but degrades substantially on local Marathi knowledge, suggesting that linguistic transfer alone is insufficient for region-specific information needs. Finally, hallucinated responses maintain persistently elevated confidence after answer generation, highlighting important limitations of current LLM self-assessment mechanisms.

Computation and Language (cs.CL); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2610.27702 [cs.CL]

(or arXiv:2610.27702v1 [cs.CL] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.27702 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Beyond Calibration: Temporal LLM Confidence Assessment Across Languages and Local Settings

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