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This research introduces the Systemic Risk Index, an open pipeline that evaluates AI models against four critical categories defined by the EU GPAI Code of Practice: CBRN threats, cyber offense, harmful manipulation, and loss of control. By utilizing harm-preserving perturbations and simulated deployment contexts, the dashboard reveals significant gaps between average risk assessments and worst-case scenarios, demonstrating how opaque evaluations can understate potential dangers. The study validates LLM judges as reliable proxies for human graders while providing transparent, traceable evidence to improve public understanding of systemic AI risks.
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An Open Pipeline and Dashboard for Systemic-Risk Evidence under the EU AI Act's Code of Practice

arXiv2 min read

arXiv:2609.28335v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Claims about AI safety reach audiences well beyond the AI community, yet many rely on opaque evidence or static assessments, when supporting evidence is accessible at all. We present the Systemic Risk Index, an open evaluation pipeline and dashboard built to make empirical evidence more transparent and traceable to the public. Our work organizes 19 public benchmarks into four systemic-risk categories defined by the EU GPAI Code of Practice---CBRN, cyber offense, harmful manipulation, and loss of control---and evaluates models using harm-preserving perturbations and simulated deployment contexts. The interactive dashboard lets users alternate between average and worst-case aggregation, vary how model capability affects the aggregate score, and trace each risk rating to its benchmark evidence. Across 18 models, scores fall by 14 to 37 points under worst-case aggregation, highlighting information that can be hidden by an average assessment of model risk. LLM judges show agreement with human graders comparable to human--human agreement ($\kappa = 0.78\text{--}0.82$), and a blind audit finds that $83\%$ of sampled transformations preserve the original harm. In a survey ($N = 21$), most participants report that scores are easy to understand and that the dashboard encouraged them to view model evaluations under different settings

Abstract:Claims about AI safety reach audiences well beyond the AI community, yet many rely on opaque evidence or static assessments, when supporting evidence is accessible at all. We present the Systemic Risk Index, an open evaluation pipeline and dashboard built to make empirical evidence more transparent and traceable to the public. Our work organizes 19 public benchmarks into four systemic-risk categories defined by the EU GPAI Code of Practice---CBRN, cyber offense, harmful manipulation, and loss of control---and evaluates models using harm-preserving perturbations and simulated deployment contexts. The interactive dashboard lets users alternate between average and worst-case aggregation, vary how model capability affects the aggregate score, and trace each risk rating to its benchmark evidence. Across 18 models, scores fall by 14 to 37 points under worst-case aggregation, highlighting information that can be hidden by an average assessment of model risk. LLM judges show agreement with human graders comparable to human--human agreement ($\kappa = 0.78\text{--}0.82$), and a blind audit finds that $83\%$ of sampled transformations preserve the original harm. In a survey ($N = 21$), most participants report that scores are easy to understand and that the dashboard encouraged them to view model evaluations under different settings

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.28335 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2609.28335v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.28335 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Full text under the publisher's open licence · 290 words

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