aiqbench analysis
The paper's contribution is a neural architecture: a TFT and N-BEATS hybrid with attention-based fusion. Solar power is the test domain, not the main subject. Its reported gains are relative to TFT and other baselines on DKASC data, so readers should weigh them against how well those baselines were tuned and how far the results transfer beyond one site. Its most useful signals are the multi-horizon design in a single pipeline and the interpretability claims, which need checking against the full evaluation.
A Hybrid TFT-NBEATS Framework for Robust Multi-Horizon Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
arXiv:2610.27155v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate multi-horizon photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for grid stability, energy scheduling, and the efficient operation of PVbatterygrid systems. However, existing models often fail to jointly capture short-term variability and long-term temporal patterns, while lacking unified multi-horizon capability and interpretability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and N-BEATS within an attention-based fusion architecture. The proposed model leverages TFT to learn short-term temporal dependencies and dynamic feature importance, while N-BEATS captures long-term trend and seasonal components through interpretable basis decomposition. An adaptive attention mechanism dynamically fuses both branches, enabling balanced multi-scale learning. The framework simultaneously generates forecasts for 30-minute, 2-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour horizons within a single unified pipeline. The model is evaluated using multi-year real-world datasets from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC). Experimental results demonstrate superior performance over statistical, machine learning, and deep learning baselines. The proposed model achieves RMSE values of 42.35, 46.27, 52.29, and 48.11 across the 20162017, 2023, 2024, and 20252026 datasets, respectively, corresponding to a 3540% reduction compared to the best baseline (TFT). Additionally, MAPE remains below 5% across all datasets, indicating high predictive accuracy and stability. The model also provides interpretability through attention visualization and trendseasonality decomposition, and is deployed on a cloud-based platform for real-time forecasting. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework is robust, interpretable, and suitable for practical renewable energy applications.
Abstract:Accurate multi-horizon photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is essential for grid stability, energy scheduling, and the efficient operation of PVbatterygrid systems. However, existing models often fail to jointly capture short-term variability and long-term temporal patterns, while lacking unified multi-horizon capability and interpretability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and N-BEATS within an attention-based fusion architecture. The proposed model leverages TFT to learn short-term temporal dependencies and dynamic feature importance, while N-BEATS captures long-term trend and seasonal components through interpretable basis decomposition. An adaptive attention mechanism dynamically fuses both branches, enabling balanced multi-scale learning. The framework simultaneously generates forecasts for 30-minute, 2-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, and 24-hour horizons within a single unified pipeline. The model is evaluated using multi-year real-world datasets from the Desert Knowledge Australia Solar Centre (DKASC). Experimental results demonstrate superior performance over statistical, machine learning, and deep learning baselines. The proposed model achieves RMSE values of 42.35, 46.27, 52.29, and 48.11 across the 20162017, 2023, 2024, and 20252026 datasets, respectively, corresponding to a 3540% reduction compared to the best baseline (TFT). Additionally, MAPE remains below 5% across all datasets, indicating high predictive accuracy and stability. The model also provides interpretability through attention visualization and trendseasonality decomposition, and is deployed on a cloud-based platform for real-time forecasting. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework is robust, interpretable, and suitable for practical renewable energy applications.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2610.27155 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2610.27155v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.27155 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.
Full text under the publisher's open licence · 331 words