A Hybrid Gaussian Process-Extreme Gradient Boosting Machine Learning Framework for Robust Knockdown Factor Prediction and Reliability-Based Design of Thin Spherical Shell Caps

Abstract:Elastic buckling remains a critical concern in the design of deep spherical shell caps, given that experiments reveal a significant reduction of critical loads from those predicted by linearized eigen-buckling analysis. This discrepancy has been attributed to initial geometric imperfections and is often reconciled through a dimensionless parameter, namely the knockdown factor (KDF). However, conventional KDFs (NASA SP-8007; Eurocode 3) are highly conservative, as they represent the lower bound of an extensive body of experimental data. This study aims to narrow the conservatism in the KDFs for spherical shell caps through machine learning (ML) regression models trained on experimental data on spherical shell buckling. A hybrid model is proposed by combining Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and its improved performance is demonstrated over conventional ML algorithms, i.e., the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Random Forest Regressor (RFR), and Histogram-based Gradient Boosting (HGBoost). Each of these models uses six input features and a single output, i.e., the KDF. The most critical feature affecting the KDF is ascertained through a sensitivity analysis. The study concludes with a reliability-based design framework that relies on the predictive ML model to obtain safety-consistent, yet less conservative, KDFs.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2610.15862 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2610.15862v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.15862 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.