A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing

arXiv:2607.18164v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Digital Twins rely on surrogate models to mirror physical systems in real time, yet these models can degrade as operating conditions evolve, a phenomenon known as concept drift. Maintaining surrogate fidelity under drift, particularly when models must also capture aleatoric uncertainty, remains an open challenge. Existing adaptive frameworks lack principled mechanisms for detecting when updates are needed, for efficiently adapting models from limited streaming data, and for certifying that updates genuinely improve predictive performance. Here we present an adaptive Digital Twin framework that integrates a Fisher score--based multivariate drift detector, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for parameter-efficient continual learning, and a Mann--Whitney $U$ test for online statistical validation. The framework monitors surrogate-model confidence via Fisher score vectors, triggers targeted fine-tuning of fewer than 1% of model parameters upon drift detection, and statistically certifies predictive improvement before deploying the updated surrogate. Applied to a stochastic linear system and a directed energy deposition additive manufacturing process as case studies, the framework successfully detects distributional shifts with short delays and restores both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification under abrupt and incremental drift. These results establish a statistically rigorous and computationally tractable pathway for sustaining the trustworthiness of neural-network--based Digital Twins throughout their operational life cycle.

Abstract:Digital Twins rely on surrogate models to mirror physical systems in real time, yet these models can degrade as operating conditions evolve, a phenomenon known as concept drift. Maintaining surrogate fidelity under drift, particularly when models must also capture aleatoric uncertainty, remains an open challenge. Existing adaptive frameworks lack principled mechanisms for detecting when updates are needed, for efficiently adapting models from limited streaming data, and for certifying that updates genuinely improve predictive performance. Here we present an adaptive Digital Twin framework that integrates a Fisher score--based multivariate drift detector, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for parameter-efficient continual learning, and a Mann--Whitney $U$ test for online statistical validation. The framework monitors surrogate-model confidence via Fisher score vectors, triggers targeted fine-tuning of fewer than 1% of model parameters upon drift detection, and statistically certifies predictive improvement before deploying the updated surrogate. Applied to a stochastic linear system and a directed energy deposition additive manufacturing process as case studies, the framework successfully detects distributional shifts with short delays and restores both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification under abrupt and incremental drift. These results establish a statistically rigorous and computationally tractable pathway for sustaining the trustworthiness of neural-network--based Digital Twins throughout their operational life cycle.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Statistics Theory (math.ST)

arXiv:2607.18164 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2607.18164v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.18164 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing

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