CITIC Securities: Gold Prices May Rise Amid Volatility in 2027, Boosting Demand-Side Recovery

36Kr reports that a CITIC Securities research note forecasts annual gold price increases of 17.7%, 28.3%, and 58.5% for 2023-25, respectively; in 2026, volatility will intensify with an intrayear maximum decline of 28.3%. These shifts have significantly altered the business models of gold jewelry chains, shifting from a focus on jewelry bars to bullion: the jewelry-to-bullion consumption ratio dropped from roughly 3:1 in 2019 to 1:3 in the first half of 2026. Gold prices show a strong negative correlation with jewelry consumption, which fell by 25% and 32% year-on-year in 2024-25 (532 tons and 364 tons, respectively); declines continued in Q1/Q2 2026 at -37% and -27%. Conversely, bullion and coin consumption reached record highs in 2025 (504 tons) after rising to 373 tons in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 46% and 9% in Q1/Q2 2026. Looking ahead to 2027, CITIC Securities expects gold prices to rise amid volatility, favoring a recovery in jewelry demand.