Your Probabilistic JEPA Is Secretly a Hidden Markov Model: A State-Space Interpretation of Joint-Embedding Predictive Learning

Abstract:A hidden Markov model (HMM) combines three roles: inference of a hidden-state belief from observations, propagation through a Markov transition, and emission back to observation space. We show that full, time-indexed Predictive Information Bottleneck VJEPA (PIB-VJEPA) exposes the same computational structure: a stochastic context encoder plays the role of an amortized filtering distribution, a probabilistic predictor defines latent-state dynamics, and a decoder, inverse target encoder, or induced implicit conditional supplies the emission direction. We distinguish 4 progressively stronger levels of correspondence and give sufficient conditions for exact sequence-level HMM equivalence. To make the connection concrete, we introduce Markov-Chain JEPA (MCJEPA), which replaces the latent predictor by a learned transition matrix; in the finite time-homogeneous case, matrix powers guarantee exact multi-horizon Chapman--Kolmogorov consistency. Conditioned discrete-state transitions, continuous-state Markov kernels, and continuous-time dynamics extend this construction, while deterministic temporal JEPA appears as a degenerate Dirac-kernel special case. We further interpret predictive information-bottleneck learning as seeking a compact predictive state: compression promotes minimality, while residual predictability tests sufficiency. Controlled experiments support transition composition, the filtering interpretation, predictive Markovization in a known synthetic process, and the distinction between JEPA latent prediction and HMM-style sequence learning. Together, these results give temporal JEPA a principled state-space interpretation.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.13621 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2608.13621v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.13621 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.