Your Autoregressive Model Already Reveals the Causal Graph

arXiv:2602.01135v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autoregressive models trained via next-token prediction implicitly learn the conditional independence structure of their data-generating process. We exploit this observation to perform scalable causal discovery from a single observed sequence of discrete events -- without any task-specific retraining. Such single-stream settings arise naturally in vehicle diagnostics, manufacturing systems, and patient trajectories, yet they remain largely unsolved: the absence of repeated samples, massive event vocabularies, and long-range temporal dependencies render existing methods either inaccurate or computationally intractable. We introduce TRACE, a framework that repurposes any pretrained autoregressive model as a density estimator for conditional mutual information, the fundamental primitive for conditional independence testing. By constructing parallelized CI tests on GPUs, TRACE recovers both the sample-level time causal graph and its summary projection, scaling linearly with the vocabulary size while naturally handling delayed causal effects. Crucially, we prove that minimizing the standard cross-entropy pretraining loss directly minimizes an upper bound on the causal identification error, establishing a duality between sequence prediction and causal discovery. On nonlinear SCMs (|X| = 8000) and real-world vehicle diagnostic logs (|X| = 29100), TRACE is the first applicable method at this scale, outperforming the strongest baseline by over 20 F1 points.

Abstract:Autoregressive models trained via next-token prediction implicitly learn the conditional independence structure of their data-generating process. We exploit this observation to perform scalable causal discovery from a single observed sequence of discrete events -- without any task-specific retraining. Such single-stream settings arise naturally in vehicle diagnostics, manufacturing systems, and patient trajectories, yet they remain largely unsolved: the absence of repeated samples, massive event vocabularies, and long-range temporal dependencies render existing methods either inaccurate or computationally intractable. We introduce TRACE, a framework that repurposes any pretrained autoregressive model as a density estimator for conditional mutual information, the fundamental primitive for conditional independence testing. By constructing parallelized CI tests on GPUs, TRACE recovers both the sample-level time causal graph and its summary projection, scaling linearly with the vocabulary size while naturally handling delayed causal effects. Crucially, we prove that minimizing the standard cross-entropy pretraining loss directly minimizes an upper bound on the causal identification error, establishing a duality between sequence prediction and causal discovery. On nonlinear SCMs (|X| = 8000) and real-world vehicle diagnostic logs (|X| = 29100), TRACE is the first applicable method at this scale, outperforming the strongest baseline by over 20 F1 points.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2602.01135 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2602.01135v4 [cs.LG] for this version)

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Your Autoregressive Model Already Reveals the Causal Graph

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