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This research addresses a critical vulnerability in AI-driven robotics where fallible world models lead to overconfident safety assessments. By leveraging adaptive conformal inference, the proposed method dynamically calibrates uncertainty based on observed prediction errors, ensuring robust safety reasoning even when the underlying dynamics model is inaccurate. The approach successfully reduces system failures while maintaining task completion rates in both simulation and hardware experiments.
When World Models Lie: Adaptive Safety Analysis Under Wrong Imaginations
arXiv:2609.34300v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: World models offer a powerful substrate for safety reasoning in high-dimensional robotic systems, but they are also fallible: their predictions can be biased, miscalibrated, or confidently wrong. This creates a central challenge for latent-space safety filters, which often learn Hamilton-Jacobi safety value functions on the dynamics of a world model. If the world model is incorrect, the resulting value function can inherit its errors and produce overconfident safety estimates. Existing latent safety filters often rely on auxiliary signals such as ensemble disagreement or value-target consistency residuals for adaptation, but these signals can remain small even when the world model's predictions deviate from observations. We propose an adaptive latent safety filter that calibrates safety reasoning using directly observed world-model error. Our method uses Adaptive Conformal Inference to construct online uncertainty sets from discrepancies between predicted and observation-inferred latent states, then evaluates safety pessimistically by minimizing the learned value function over these sets. This allows the filter to remain minimally conservative when the world model is accurate, while becoming more cautious when observations reveal model mismatch. We provide a finite-time coverage guarantee for the adaptive uncertainty radius. Through simulation and hardware experiments, we show that our method significantly reduces failures relative to state-of-the-art latent safety filters while preserving task completion.
Abstract:World models offer a powerful substrate for safety reasoning in high-dimensional robotic systems, but they are also fallible: their predictions can be biased, miscalibrated, or confidently wrong. This creates a central challenge for latent-space safety filters, which often learn Hamilton-Jacobi safety value functions on the dynamics of a world model. If the world model is incorrect, the resulting value function can inherit its errors and produce overconfident safety estimates. Existing latent safety filters often rely on auxiliary signals such as ensemble disagreement or value-target consistency residuals for adaptation, but these signals can remain small even when the world model's predictions deviate from observations. We propose an adaptive latent safety filter that calibrates safety reasoning using directly observed world-model error. Our method uses Adaptive Conformal Inference to construct online uncertainty sets from discrepancies between predicted and observation-inferred latent states, then evaluates safety pessimistically by minimizing the learned value function over these sets. This allows the filter to remain minimally conservative when the world model is accurate, while becoming more cautious when observations reveal model mismatch. We provide a finite-time coverage guarantee for the adaptive uncertainty radius. Through simulation and hardware experiments, we show that our method significantly reduces failures relative to state-of-the-art latent safety filters while preserving task completion.
Robotics (cs.RO); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Systems and Control (eess.SY)
arXiv:2609.34300 [cs.RO]
(or arXiv:2609.34300v1 [cs.RO] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.34300 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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