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REMIND is a machine-learning method for spatiotemporal forecasting that retrieves similar historical patterns to judge how well a new observation is supported, then blends two probabilistic branches according to estimated shift severity. The paper's claims rest on improved calibration and accuracy over prior methods on real-world datasets, so practitioners should check the benchmarks, baselines, and compute cost before assuming the gains transfer to their own forecasting pipelines.
When to Trust Memory: Retrieval-Guided Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Forecasting under Distribution Shift
arXiv:2610.32329v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Spatiotemporal forecasting plays an important role in real-world applications, where probabilistic approaches provide uncertainty estimates for decision-making. Real-world systems are inherently non-stationary, leading to distribution shifts between training and test data. However, existing probabilistic methods mainly focus on modeling data distributions under standard settings, while distribution shift methods often handle such shifts in a coarse manner, failing to characterize shift degree and adapt prediction strategy accordingly. As a result, they often produce miscalibrated and unreliable forecasts. To address this issue, we propose REMIND, a retrieval-guided probabilistic framework for spatiotemporal forecasting under distribution shift. REMIND leverages retrieval to estimate how well current observation are supported by historical patterns, enabling adaptive prediction under different shift regimes. It employs spatiotemporal retrieval to construct a memory bank and introduces a dual branch architecture, combining a memory-calibrated probabilistic branch for mild shifts with a deviation-aware probabilistic branch for severe shifts. A shift-adaptive gate, guided by retrieval similarity and memory dispersion, balances the two branches according to shift degree. We further design a hierarchical Gaussian mixture to capture heterogeneous uncertainty over the dual branch predictions, and introduce a memory perturbation training scheme to improve generalization. Experiments on real-world datasets with distribution shifts demonstrate that REMIND consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and probabilistic prediction quality.
Abstract:Spatiotemporal forecasting plays an important role in real-world applications, where probabilistic approaches provide uncertainty estimates for decision-making. Real-world systems are inherently non-stationary, leading to distribution shifts between training and test data. However, existing probabilistic methods mainly focus on modeling data distributions under standard settings, while distribution shift methods often handle such shifts in a coarse manner, failing to characterize shift degree and adapt prediction strategy accordingly. As a result, they often produce miscalibrated and unreliable forecasts. To address this issue, we propose REMIND, a retrieval-guided probabilistic framework for spatiotemporal forecasting under distribution shift. REMIND leverages retrieval to estimate how well current observation are supported by historical patterns, enabling adaptive prediction under different shift regimes. It employs spatiotemporal retrieval to construct a memory bank and introduces a dual branch architecture, combining a memory-calibrated probabilistic branch for mild shifts with a deviation-aware probabilistic branch for severe shifts. A shift-adaptive gate, guided by retrieval similarity and memory dispersion, balances the two branches according to shift degree. We further design a hierarchical Gaussian mixture to capture heterogeneous uncertainty over the dual branch predictions, and introduce a memory perturbation training scheme to improve generalization. Experiments on real-world datasets with distribution shifts demonstrate that REMIND consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both forecasting accuracy and probabilistic prediction quality.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2610.32329 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2610.32329v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.32329 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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