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This arXiv study tests when conditioning a molecular property model on target identity helps, and it finds that the fusion method matters more than whether context is included at all. It also argues that common benchmarks such as DUD-E are inflated by training-data leakage, so absolute scores from them should be treated cautiously. For ML readers, the most useful takeaways are the ablation results and the caveat about evaluation design, not the headline accuracy numbers.
When Does Context Help? A Systematic Study of Target-Conditional Molecular Property Prediction
arXiv:2604.06558v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the first systematic study of when target context helps molecular property prediction, evaluating context conditioning across 10 diverse protein families, 4 fusion architectures, data regimes spanning 67-9,409 training compounds, and both temporal and random evaluation splits. Using NestDrug, a FiLM-based architecture that conditions molecular representations on target identity, we characterize both success and failure modes with three principal findings. First, fusion architecture dominates: FiLM outperforms concatenation by 24.2 percentage points and additive conditioning by 8.6 pp; how you incorporate context matters more than whether you include it. Second, context enables otherwise impossible predictions: on data-scarce CYP3A4 (67 training compounds), multi-task transfer achieves 0.686 AUC where per-target Random Forest collapses to 0.238. Third, context can systematically hurt: distribution mismatch causes 10.2 pp degradation on BACE1; few-shot adaptation consistently underperforms zero-shot. Beyond methodology, we expose fundamental flaws in standard benchmarking: 1-nearest-neighbor Tanimoto achieves 0.991 AUC on DUD-E without any learning, and 50% of actives leak from training data, rendering absolute performance metrics meaningless. Our temporal split evaluation (train up to 2020, test 2021-2024) achieves stable 0.843 AUC with no degradation, providing the first rigorous evidence that context-conditional molecular representations generalize to future chemical space.
Title:When Does Context Help? A Systematic Study of Target-Conditional Molecular Property Prediction
Abstract:We present the first systematic study of when target context helps molecular property prediction, evaluating context conditioning across 10 diverse protein families, 4 fusion architectures, data regimes spanning 67-9,409 training compounds, and both temporal and random evaluation splits. Using NestDrug, a FiLM-based architecture that conditions molecular representations on target identity, we characterize both success and failure modes with three principal findings. First, fusion architecture dominates: FiLM outperforms concatenation by 24.2 percentage points and additive conditioning by 8.6 pp; how you incorporate context matters more than whether you include it. Second, context enables otherwise impossible predictions: on data-scarce CYP3A4 (67 training compounds), multi-task transfer achieves 0.686 AUC where per-target Random Forest collapses to 0.238. Third, context can systematically hurt: distribution mismatch causes 10.2 pp degradation on BACE1; few-shot adaptation consistently underperforms zero-shot. Beyond methodology, we expose fundamental flaws in standard benchmarking: 1-nearest-neighbor Tanimoto achieves 0.991 AUC on DUD-E without any learning, and 50% of actives leak from training data, rendering absolute performance metrics meaningless. Our temporal split evaluation (train up to 2020, test 2021-2024) achieves stable 0.843 AUC with no degradation, providing the first rigorous evidence that context-conditional molecular representations generalize to future chemical space.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Biomolecules (q-bio.BM); Molecular Networks (q-bio.MN)
arXiv:2604.06558 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2604.06558v2 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2604.06558 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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