We need a ‘The Day After’ moment for AI X-risk

Right now AI is gaining capability at an astonishing pace, from solving a Millennium Prize Problem math problem, assisting in the production of new drugs, to being able to paint the Golden Gate bridge using a robot arm. It is insane to remember that it was only ~4 years ago that ChatGPT released. If this pace continues, very soon we may create misaligned ASI that will kill literally everyone. In the face of such risks I am reminded of the intense nuclear risks of the 1980s, and how media impacted politics in ways that helped us avoid oblivion. As well as how a moment like this for AI X-risk could make a difference. This is a graph of the Doomsday’s Clock minutes to midnight, it is a rough indicator of existential risk from nuclear weapons until 2007 when other existential risks were added. The largest positive swing comes from the time period of 1984 to 1991. So, what caused this abrupt decrease in nuclear risk? I think this change was obviously polycausal, partially decisions made by Mikhail Gorbachev impacting policy in the USSR, partially increased communications, all were crucial motivating factors. Although, a surprisingly important factor in this was the movie “The Day After”. The Economy Crumbles and Existential Risk Increases Oil Shock In 1979 the Iranian Revolution sparked a series of conflicts in the middle east that reduced the oil output of the Persian Gulf. Directly causing oil prices in the US to (eventually) more than double. As a result of the increased cost of energy, by 1980 the US was going through one of the worst recessions it had ever seen with not just a stagnating economy but also deflation, then coined as stagflation. This price increase caused devastating inflation To control this the FED raised interest rates to the highest in history, approaching 20%. Together these factors caused a deep recession. The macro tumult experienced in this era also likely crept to the social world with high unemployment, cult formation, and urban decay. Nearing the end of Jimmy Carter’s term in 1980, the people were ready for political change, this was most prominently a hawkish then senator Ronald Reagan. X-Risk 1974: 9 minutes to midnight In the mid 70s both the US and USSR were developing MIRVs (Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles, these are single missiles with multiple war heads) which were thought to change the offense defense balance towards Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) as well as India gaining nuclear weapons. Increasing risk from the previously 12 minutes to midnight which was the result of notable arms control agreements. 1980: 7 minutes to midnight SALT 2[1] (Strategic Arms Limitation Talks) was signed by Jimmy Carter in June of 1979 but were never ratified by the senate because the USSR invaded Afghanistan ending détente, reopening the cold war, then leading the then president Jimmy Carter to withdraw it from consideration in January of 1980. With the US boycotting the 1980 Moscow Olympics. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was founded in 1979 to prepare for nuclear conflict. The changing opinions on its survivability are evident on a 1981 publication on claiming: A close look at the facts shows with fair certainty that with reasonable protective measures, the United States could survive nuclear attack and go on to recovery within a relatively few years. This rhetoric softened the perspectives of policy makers on the direct impacts of nuclear war. Ronald Reagan is Elected Due to the perceived failures of the Carter administration, and the poor economic landscape under Carter[2] Ronald Reagan won in a landslide. 1981: 4 Minutes to Midnight From the outset of Ronald Reagan’s presidential aspirations there was a strong criticism of the relaxing of relations between the US and USSR détente by President Ford and Carter. Reagan had a policy of “peace through strength” which increased military spending and saber rattling against communist countries. He supported active rollback of communist countries, just containment was no longer enough. This caused his administration to put more pressure on the USSR raising tensions. This includes: Treating the USSR as an untrustworthy adversary rather than something worthy of negotiation (notably as an ‘evil empire’) Increasing military budgets (some call it the largest peacetime buildup in history) Put forward the strategic Defense initiative (SDI) also known as star wars in opposition to MAD doctrine Reviving the B-1 lancer program Also, some Reaganite officials mused that humanity could easily survive all out nuclear war most notoriously T.K. Jones who was the deputy undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, strategic, and theater nuclear forces. Stating: “If there are enough shovels to go around, everybody’s going to make it” and that in an all out war scenario the US could fully recover in two to four years. These actions likely moved the US and USSR closer to nuclear exchange[3]. 1984: 3