VitisGP: Multi-Task Benchmark for Genotype to Phenotype Grapevine Prediction

arXiv:2610.40668v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As climate change reshapes grape-growing conditions, predicting grapevine phenotypes from genomic variation is increasingly important for identifying and breeding cultivars suited to emerging environmental pressures. Existing research on the grapevine genotype-phenotype relationship using machine learning has often focused on individual traits, isolated regions, or a limited set of predictive models. We introduce VitisGP, a multi-phenotype curated dataset, integrating genome-wide SNP data with 26 heterogeneous phenotype prediction tasks spanning sommelier-curated aroma traits (N=11), botanical traits (N=14) and wine color---across 1,197 Vitis vinifera cultivars. We employ VitisGP to benchmark phenotype prediction, comparing machine-learning models with differing inductive biases---L2-regularized logistic regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, GBLUP and Transformer-based models, providing the first systematic comparison of this breadth on harmonized grapevine data. Across the benchmark, CatBoost achieves the strongest overall performance (macro-average AUROC=0.696 across 26 tasks), although model performance varies substantially across phenotype classes, with sensory and color traits showing stronger predictability than agronomic characteristics. VitisGP provides the community with a resource for investigating the genomic basis of phenotypic traits and screening grapevine diversity for climate-relevant characteristics.

Abstract:As climate change reshapes grape-growing conditions, predicting grapevine phenotypes from genomic variation is increasingly important for identifying and breeding cultivars suited to emerging environmental pressures. Existing research on the grapevine genotype-phenotype relationship using machine learning has often focused on individual traits, isolated regions, or a limited set of predictive models. We introduce VitisGP, a multi-phenotype curated dataset, integrating genome-wide SNP data with 26 heterogeneous phenotype prediction tasks spanning sommelier-curated aroma traits (N=11), botanical traits (N=14) and wine color---across 1,197 Vitis vinifera cultivars. We employ VitisGP to benchmark phenotype prediction, comparing machine-learning models with differing inductive biases---L2-regularized logistic regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, GBLUP and Transformer-based models, providing the first systematic comparison of this breadth on harmonized grapevine data. Across the benchmark, CatBoost achieves the strongest overall performance (macro-average AUROC=0.696 across 26 tasks), although model performance varies substantially across phenotype classes, with sensory and color traits showing stronger predictability than agronomic characteristics. VitisGP provides the community with a resource for investigating the genomic basis of phenotypic traits and screening grapevine diversity for climate-relevant characteristics.

Genomics (q-bio.GN); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2610.40668 [q-bio.GN]

(or arXiv:2610.40668v1 [q-bio.GN] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.40668 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

40th Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS 2026). Workshop: Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

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VitisGP: Multi-Task Benchmark for Genotype to Phenotype Grapevine Prediction

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