Uncovering Residential PV-EV Co-Adoption from Smart-Meter Data: Load Archetypes and Detection for Demand-Side Planning

Abstract:The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is reshaping residential electricity demand and creating new challenges for demand-side management (DSM), tariff design, and low-voltage network planning. Much of the existing literature examines EV charging or PV generation in isolation, leaving the behavioral dynamics of household co-adoption less understood. We develop an integrated, two-part workflow to analyze advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. A discovery component applies dynamic time warping (DTW) k-means with DTW barycenter averaging to cluster daily import or export profiles into interpretable behavioral archetypes, while a predictive component trains a bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) model on 21-day windows and benchmarks it against tabular baselines for PV/EV activity detection. The EV activity labels are inferred from charging-like load signatures because charger measurements are unavailable. Using half-hourly AusNet residential data from Victoria, Australia, the clustering uncovers distinct patterns across PV-only, EV-only, co-adoption, and neither cohorts; for co-adopters, a midday-centered weekday export archetype accounts for approximately 50% of days. At validation-tuned thresholds, both BiLSTM and XGBoost achieve strong discrimination. BiLSTM obtains 0.991 for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), 0.906 for macro-F1, and the highest recall on the most difficult class (0.836 for EV-only recall). Tree-based baselines remain competitive. Performance remains stable across plausible labeling rules (macro-F1: 0.894--0.914) and strictly forward temporal splits (macro-F1: 0.894--0.906).

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2609.28578 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.28578v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.28578 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nxener.2026.101061 Focus to learn more DOI(s) linking to related resources

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