UHI-Bench: Benchmarking Dual-Source Urban Heat Island Modeling Across Cities in Diverse Climate Regimes

Abstract:Urban heat islands (UHIs) are intensifying under climate change, exacerbating thermal exposure risks. Their two primary observations, land surface temperature UHI (LST-UHI) and near-surface air temperature UHI (AirT-UHI), capture physically distinct aspects of urban heat. However, most studies rely on a single source, and substituting one for the other can substantially bias the magnitude and spatial variability of human heat exposure. Accurate UHI modeling also requires dynamic meteorological drivers and static urban morphology features, but spatiotemporal incompatibilities hinder their alignment. Cloud gaps in LST observations and sparse AirT station networks further limit dual-source UHI modeling, motivating cross-city transfer across diverse climates. To bridge these gaps, we introduce UHI-Bench, the first UHI benchmark for dual-source UHI modeling that integrates dynamic and static environmental context. Following a unified signal, mechanism, and transfer framework, it evaluates over 20 baselines from four model families on five tasks across 20 cities and nine Köppen climate classes. Results show that no model is uniformly best, although foundation models remain consistently competitive and stable. Environmental covariates generally improve performance, but their utility varies across sources and tasks. Cross-city transferability is better explained by overlap in UHI regimes than by climate-zone similarity. With the dataset and standardized pipeline, our work provides practical guidance for urban heat modeling, promotes climate data equity, and supports future advances in climate research.

Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2608.23857 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2608.23857v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.23857 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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