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This research addresses the context drift issue in Decision Transformers by introducing a trust mechanism that filters unreliable historical contexts using next-state prediction errors calibrated via conformal prediction. The proposed Trust Guided Decision Transformer (TGDT) prioritizes selecting valid context suffixes before applying value guidance, effectively preventing actions derived from degraded model confidence. Experiments on navigation and locomotion tasks demonstrate improved returns compared to standard methods, offering a robust solution for long-horizon reinforcement learning applications.
Trust Guided Decision Transformer
arXiv:2609.31586v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision Transformer performance degrades on long rollouts because the conditioning context drifts out of the training distribution. We show that this drift is visible through the model's own next state prediction error, which rises during rollout and stays elevated, giving a direct signal of when context has become unreliable. We introduce Trust Guided Decision Transformer (TGDT), which selects context before applying value guidance. At each step, TGDT evaluates several recent context suffixes using rolling next state prediction error, calibrated against held out offline data via split conformal prediction. It keeps only suffixes whose error stays within the calibrated threshold, then uses a frozen critic to choose the highest value action among the trusted suffixes. This reverses the order used by value only elastic selection, where the critic may choose an action generated from a context the model itself has flagged as unreliable. Experiments on D4RL navigation and locomotion tasks show that state prediction, critic guidance, and hard context reset each solve only part of the problem. TGDT reduces persistent high error runs and improves return over vanilla Decision Transformer, reset based context control, and value only context selection.
Abstract:Decision Transformer performance degrades on long rollouts because the conditioning context drifts out of the training distribution. We show that this drift is visible through the model's own next state prediction error, which rises during rollout and stays elevated, giving a direct signal of when context has become unreliable. We introduce Trust Guided Decision Transformer (TGDT), which selects context before applying value guidance. At each step, TGDT evaluates several recent context suffixes using rolling next state prediction error, calibrated against held out offline data via split conformal prediction. It keeps only suffixes whose error stays within the calibrated threshold, then uses a frozen critic to choose the highest value action among the trusted suffixes. This reverses the order used by value only elastic selection, where the critic may choose an action generated from a context the model itself has flagged as unreliable. Experiments on D4RL navigation and locomotion tasks show that state prediction, critic guidance, and hard context reset each solve only part of the problem. TGDT reduces persistent high error runs and improves return over vanilla Decision Transformer, reset based context control, and value only context selection.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2609.31586 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2609.31586v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.31586 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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