Traceable Multi-Agent System for Knowledge-Based Forecasting

arXiv:2608.03339v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Enterprise forecasting increasingly relies on autonomous agents that interpret documents, search for data, generate code, and revise models. While this autonomy helps build adaptive forecasting pipelines, it also makes it difficult for practitioners to inspect why a forecast changed, which evidence supported the change, and how data and modeling choices were revised. We present TraceMAS, an interactive demo system for traceable multi-agent forecasting. TraceMAS organizes agent outputs around two causal-loop representations: an Ideal Causal Loop Diagram (Ideal CLD), which captures key factors and their causal relations extracted from domain documents, and a Data-Grounded Causal Loop Diagram (Data-Grounded CLD), which links those factors to internal variables, external data, or documented proxies. The Data-Grounded CLD guides feature construction and model design while preserving the connection between textual evidence, data choices, and model revisions. We demonstrate TraceMAS on crude oil price forecasting. The demo interface allows users to compare forecasting iterations, inspect agent-level revisions, explore causal maps, review feature-data mappings and model architecture, and connect scenario forecasts to market narratives. This demonstration shows how autonomous forecasting agents can retain flexibility while making the evidence-to-forecast process inspectable.

Abstract:Enterprise forecasting increasingly relies on autonomous agents that interpret documents, search for data, generate code, and revise models. While this autonomy helps build adaptive forecasting pipelines, it also makes it difficult for practitioners to inspect why a forecast changed, which evidence supported the change, and how data and modeling choices were revised. We present TraceMAS, an interactive demo system for traceable multi-agent forecasting. TraceMAS organizes agent outputs around two causal-loop representations: an Ideal Causal Loop Diagram (Ideal CLD), which captures key factors and their causal relations extracted from domain documents, and a Data-Grounded Causal Loop Diagram (Data-Grounded CLD), which links those factors to internal variables, external data, or documented proxies. The Data-Grounded CLD guides feature construction and model design while preserving the connection between textual evidence, data choices, and model revisions. We demonstrate TraceMAS on crude oil price forecasting. The demo interface allows users to compare forecasting iterations, inspect agent-level revisions, explore causal maps, review feature-data mappings and model architecture, and connect scenario forecasts to market narratives. This demonstration shows how autonomous forecasting agents can retain flexibility while making the evidence-to-forecast process inspectable.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2608.03339 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2608.03339v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.03339 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Traceable Multi-Agent System for Knowledge-Based Forecasting

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