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This research establishes tight long-term tail decay bounds for Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in non-convex optimization, offering significantly stronger failure probability guarantees than existing finite-time analyses. By leveraging large deviations theory, the study demonstrates that both vanilla and clipped SGD exhibit decay rates orders of magnitude faster than previously known, which is critical for ensuring reliability in modern models trained over millions of iterations. The findings provide a more accurate theoretical foundation for assessing the robustness of individual training runs under heavy-tailed noise conditions.
Tight Long-Term Tail Decay of (Clipped) SGD in Non-Convex Optimization
arXiv:2602.05657v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying the error rate for a fixed probability threshold, there is a lack of work directly studying the probability of failure, i.e., quantifying the tail decay rate for a fixed error threshold. Moreover, existing results are of finite-time nature, limiting their ability to capture the true long-term tail decay which is more informative for modern learning models, typically trained for millions of iterations. Our work closes these gaps, by studying the long-term tail decay of SGD-based methods through the lens of large deviations theory, establishing several strong results in the process. First, we provide an upper bound on the tails of the gradient norm-squared of the best iterate produced by (vanilla) SGD, for non-convex costs and bounded noise, with long-term decay at rate $e^{-t/\log(t)}$. Next, we relax the noise assumption by considering clipped SGD (c-SGD) under heavy-tailed noise with bounded moment of order $p \in (1,2]$, showing an upper bound with long-term decay at rate $e^{-t^{\beta_p}/\log(t)}$, where $\beta_p = \frac{4(p-1)}{3p-2}$ for $p \in (1,2)$ and $e^{-t/\log^2(t)}$ for $p = 2$. Finally, we provide lower bounds on the tail decay, at rate $e^{-t}$, showing that our rates for both SGD and c-SGD are tight, up to poly-logarithmic factors. Notably, our results demonstrate an order of magnitude faster long-term tail decay compared to existing work based on finite-time bounds, which show rates $e^{-\sqrt{t}}$ and $e^{-t^{\beta_p/2}}$, $p \in (1,2]$, for SGD and c-SGD, respectively. As such, we uncover regimes where the tails decay much faster than previously known, providing stronger long-term guarantees for individual runs.
Abstract:The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying the error rate for a fixed probability threshold, there is a lack of work directly studying the probability of failure, i.e., quantifying the tail decay rate for a fixed error threshold. Moreover, existing results are of finite-time nature, limiting their ability to capture the true long-term tail decay which is more informative for modern learning models, typically trained for millions of iterations. Our work closes these gaps, by studying the long-term tail decay of SGD-based methods through the lens of large deviations theory, establishing several strong results in the process. First, we provide an upper bound on the tails of the gradient norm-squared of the best iterate produced by (vanilla) SGD, for non-convex costs and bounded noise, with long-term decay at rate $e^{-t/\log(t)}$. Next, we relax the noise assumption by considering clipped SGD (c-SGD) under heavy-tailed noise with bounded moment of order $p \in (1,2]$, showing an upper bound with long-term decay at rate $e^{-t^{\beta_p}/\log(t)}$, where $\beta_p = \frac{4(p-1)}{3p-2}$ for $p \in (1,2)$ and $e^{-t/\log^2(t)}$ for $p = 2$. Finally, we provide lower bounds on the tail decay, at rate $e^{-t}$, showing that our rates for both SGD and c-SGD are tight, up to poly-logarithmic factors. Notably, our results demonstrate an order of magnitude faster long-term tail decay compared to existing work based on finite-time bounds, which show rates $e^{-\sqrt{t}}$ and $e^{-t^{\beta_p/2}}$, $p \in (1,2]$, for SGD and c-SGD, respectively. As such, we uncover regimes where the tails decay much faster than previously known, providing stronger long-term guarantees for individual runs.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Optimization and Control (math.OC)
arXiv:2602.05657 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2602.05657v2 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2602.05657 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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