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This study utilizes a probabilistic causal framework to disentangle the effects of off-street parking from income constraints on electric vehicle adoption in Scotland. The findings indicate that while home charging acts as a catalyst for existing buyers, household income remains the primary barrier to entry, suggesting that policy must prioritize financial incentives over infrastructure expansion alone.
The causal relation between off-street parking and electric vehicle adoption in Scotland
arXiv:2604.09271v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The transition to electric mobility hinges on maximising aggregate adoption while also facilitating equitable access. This study examines whether the 'charging divide' between households with and without off-street parking reflects a genuine infrastructure constraint or a by-product of socio-economic disparity. Moving beyond conventional predictive models, we apply a probabilistic causal framework to a nationally representative dataset of Scottish households, enabling estimation of policy interventions while explicitly neutralising the confounding effect of other causal factors. The results reveal a structural hierarchy in the EV adoption process. Private off-street parking functions as a conversion catalyst: enabling access to home-charging increases the probability of EV ownership from 3.3% to 5.6% (a 70% relative, 2.3 percentage point absolute increase). However, this effect primarily accelerates households already economically positioned to purchase an EV rather than recruiting new entrants. By contrast, household income operates as the fundamental affordability ceiling. A causal contrast between lower- and higher-income strata, shows a reduction in market non-participation by 23.1 percentage points, identifying financial capacity as the principal gatekeeper to entering the EV transition funnel. Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that standard observational models overstate the isolated effect of off-street parking infrastructure. The apparent effect emerges from selection bias: higher-income households are disproportionately likely to possess both private parking and the means to purchase EVs. These findings support a dual-track policy strategy: lowering the affordability ceiling for non-participants through financial instruments, while addressing EV home-charging access for the 'latent intent' cohort in high-density urban contexts.
Abstract:The transition to electric mobility hinges on maximising aggregate adoption while also facilitating equitable access. This study examines whether the 'charging divide' between households with and without off-street parking reflects a genuine infrastructure constraint or a by-product of socio-economic disparity. Moving beyond conventional predictive models, we apply a probabilistic causal framework to a nationally representative dataset of Scottish households, enabling estimation of policy interventions while explicitly neutralising the confounding effect of other causal factors. The results reveal a structural hierarchy in the EV adoption process. Private off-street parking functions as a conversion catalyst: enabling access to home-charging increases the probability of EV ownership from 3.3% to 5.6% (a 70% relative, 2.3 percentage point absolute increase). However, this effect primarily accelerates households already economically positioned to purchase an EV rather than recruiting new entrants. By contrast, household income operates as the fundamental affordability ceiling. A causal contrast between lower- and higher-income strata, shows a reduction in market non-participation by 23.1 percentage points, identifying financial capacity as the principal gatekeeper to entering the EV transition funnel. Crucially, the analysis demonstrates that standard observational models overstate the isolated effect of off-street parking infrastructure. The apparent effect emerges from selection bias: higher-income households are disproportionately likely to possess both private parking and the means to purchase EVs. These findings support a dual-track policy strategy: lowering the affordability ceiling for non-participants through financial instruments, while addressing EV home-charging access for the 'latent intent' cohort in high-density urban contexts.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2604.09271 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2604.09271v2 [cs.LG] for this version)
D'Amico, Bernardino, Achille Fonzone, and Emma Hart. "The causal relation between off-street parking and electric vehicle adoption in Scotland. "Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice", 214 (2026): 105294
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2026.105294 DOI(s) linking to related resources
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