TC-Next: Zero-Shot Multimodal Cyclone Forecasting

Abstract:We present TropicalCycloneNext (TC-Next), a multimodal deep learning model that forecasts tropical cyclone track and intensity at $6$-$24$ h leads by leveraging a foundation model's forecast fields of atmospheric kinematic and thermodynamic fields and GridSat infrared satellite imagery. Trained only on GraphCast forecasts over the Western Pacific (WP), yet reliant only on generic atmospheric variables, TC-Next on GraphCast lowers track error by $15$-$44\%$ and intensity error by a factor of $3$-$6$ relative to a conventional, rule-based tracker, TempestExtremes; applied without retraining to the forecast fields of Pangu-Weather and IFS HRES, it stays ahead of TempestExtremes on both. Applied zero-shot to the generic weather fields of WeatherNext Cyclones on the 2025 WP season, TC-Next attains lower intensity error at every lead time, and lower or comparable track error, compared to that model's specialized direct tracker in a deterministic comparison. Our ablation studies show that our multimodal model is able to utilize the additional modality to improve performance in tracking errors at every lead time and in intensity prediction at longer lead times.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (cs.CV)

arXiv:2609.02085 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.02085v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.02085 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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