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This research introduces "L-State," a method using target-independent micro-interventions to predict how language models will respond to future training episodes beyond their current benchmark scores. By analyzing these responses across multiple model families, the study significantly reduces prediction error and improves trajectory forecasting for both open and sealed models like GLM-4 and Granite-3.1.
Target-Independent Micro-Interventions for Predicting Training Response Across Language-Model Families
arXiv:2609.08618v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Benchmark scores describe what a checkpoint can do now, but they do not determine how it will respond to the next training episode. We measure this missing state by branching four short, standardized, target-independent micro-interventions from the same checkpoint and recording their effects in a common capability space. Together with current capability, these responses form L-State; its pulse block supports a flexible direct readout and a structure-preserving operator readout. Under smooth local dynamics, the operator construction admits an end-to-end cross-family bound with explicit source- and target-family coordinate heterogeneity. In three-family leave-one-family-out development, both pulse readouts reduce source-standardized MSE by 39.4% relative to capability alone, while separating the best response and direction estimates. On sealed GLM-4-9B, the direct and operator readouts reduce MSE by 71.8% and 78.3%, respectively, and the operator readout raises sign balanced accuracy from 0.366 to 0.754. On sealed Granite-3.1-8B, the direct readout reaches RMSE 0.544 and a development-fitted action-wise selector reaches 0.554, compared with 1.172 for capability alone. A five-family audit finds that the operator coordinate varies by action and family, and that modeling these deviations improves retrospective held-trajectory prediction. Target-independent interventions therefore expose training-response information that current capability misses, with direct and structured readouts covering complementary transfer regimes.
Abstract:Benchmark scores describe what a checkpoint can do now, but they do not determine how it will respond to the next training episode. We measure this missing state by branching four short, standardized, target-independent micro-interventions from the same checkpoint and recording their effects in a common capability space. Together with current capability, these responses form L-State; its pulse block supports a flexible direct readout and a structure-preserving operator readout. Under smooth local dynamics, the operator construction admits an end-to-end cross-family bound with explicit source- and target-family coordinate heterogeneity. In three-family leave-one-family-out development, both pulse readouts reduce source-standardized MSE by 39.4% relative to capability alone, while separating the best response and direction estimates. On sealed GLM-4-9B, the direct and operator readouts reduce MSE by 71.8% and 78.3%, respectively, and the operator readout raises sign balanced accuracy from 0.366 to 0.754. On sealed Granite-3.1-8B, the direct readout reaches RMSE 0.544 and a development-fitted action-wise selector reaches 0.554, compared with 1.172 for capability alone. A five-family audit finds that the operator coordinate varies by action and family, and that modeling these deviations improves retrospective held-trajectory prediction. Target-independent interventions therefore expose training-response information that current capability misses, with direct and structured readouts covering complementary transfer regimes.
Machine Learning (cs.LG)
arXiv:2609.08618 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2609.08618v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.08618 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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