SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis

arXiv:2509.22352v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that SurvDiff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and survival model evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first end-to-end diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.

Abstract:Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that SurvDiff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and survival model evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first end-to-end diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2509.22352 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2509.22352v3 [cs.LG] for this version)

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SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis

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