Strategies for Milestone-driven Start-ups in Multi-activity Settings

Abstract:New venture start-ups need to ``survive'' through multiple stages of reaching milestone targets. We investigate the strategies for start-ups in a milestone-oriented setting. We examine a model of an entrepreneurial start-up firm, where its state is captured by a diffusion process. The entrepreneur can choose between multiple activities (or controls), which incur different cost and determine the drift and the variance of the process. Depending on whether the process reaches a fixed upper boundary or a lower one, the start-up firm succeeds or fails. Continuous-time stochastic models with multiple ($\ge 3$) controls are typically very challenging to deal with. In this work, we are able to completely solve for the optimal policy and provide an explicit characterization of its structure. In particular, the optimal policy only uses controls from a set characterized by a so-called efficient frontier curve that orders the controls by two intuitive measures: riskiness (drift-to-volatility ratio) and cost-effectiveness (drift-to-cost ratio). A unique feature of our model is that depending on the model parameters, the efficient frontier curves can be of different types, resulting in qualitatively different structures of the optimal policy. As far as we know, this is the first study that analyzes a stochastic control model which admits efficient frontier curves of different types. Our work provides start-up firms with intuitive measures to evaluate their activities and offers valuable insights on how the optimal strategies in a milestone-oriented setting change qualitatively contingent upon the specific scenario. We believe the results provide a foundational block in the study of entrepreneurial decision-making.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Optimization and Control (math.OC); Probability (math.PR); Applications (stat.AP); Machine Learning (stat.ML)

arXiv:2607.27563 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2607.27563v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.27563 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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