Spectral Costs of Multinomial and Residual Resampling in High-Dimensional Particle Ensembles: A Free-Probability Analysis

arXiv:2610.16680v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Resampling is the standard remedy against weight degeneracy in particle filters, yet its effect on the spectrum of the particle second-moment matrix is poorly understood. We study a single resampling step for a d-dimensional ensemble of N particles with d/N -> c. For any unbiased scheme, the resampled empirical second-moment matrix dominates its pre-resampling counterpart in conditional convex order, while the conditional mean is preserved; the excess second spectral moment equals the Frobenius energy of the resampling perturbation. For multinomial resampling, the empirical count law converges to the mixed-Poisson law determined by the limiting weight law. For residual resampling, the count law is determined by the joint limit of floor-fraction pairs: we classify all residual limits of weight sequences converging to delta_1 in law as a one-parameter family between the deterministic identity and the full multinomial count law. Each count law feeds a common covariance-side spectral map, yielding exact consequences: a closed-form zero-eigenvalue mass, a rank-and-spectral-gap transition with a universal lower edge benchmark, computable regular edges, unbounded right support, and scheme-specific second-moment costs. The effective sample size determines one bulk statistic but cannot determine the limiting spectrum. Pre-registered numerical experiments confirm the theory at every level.

Abstract:Resampling is the standard remedy against weight degeneracy in particle filters, yet its effect on the spectrum of the particle second-moment matrix is poorly understood. We study a single resampling step for a d-dimensional ensemble of N particles with d/N -> c. For any unbiased scheme, the resampled empirical second-moment matrix dominates its pre-resampling counterpart in conditional convex order, while the conditional mean is preserved; the excess second spectral moment equals the Frobenius energy of the resampling perturbation. For multinomial resampling, the empirical count law converges to the mixed-Poisson law determined by the limiting weight law. For residual resampling, the count law is determined by the joint limit of floor-fraction pairs: we classify all residual limits of weight sequences converging to delta_1 in law as a one-parameter family between the deterministic identity and the full multinomial count law. Each count law feeds a common covariance-side spectral map, yielding exact consequences: a closed-form zero-eigenvalue mass, a rank-and-spectral-gap transition with a universal lower edge benchmark, computable regular edges, unbounded right support, and scheme-specific second-moment costs. The effective sample size determines one bulk statistic but cannot determine the limiting spectrum. Pre-registered numerical experiments confirm the theory at every level.

25 pages, 5 figures. This is a preprint of an article submitted to IEEE TPS, and a version has been posted on engrXiv

Statistics Theory (math.ST); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2610.16680 [math.ST]

(or arXiv:2610.16680v1 [math.ST] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.16680 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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Spectral Costs of Multinomial and Residual Resampling in High-Dimensional Particle Ensembles: A Free-Probability Analysis

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