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This research introduces SPANUQ, a lightweight probe that estimates uncertainty over semantically coherent text spans rather than individual tokens or entire sequences, offering superior error localization for LLMs. By distilling multi-sample inference into a single forward pass, the method achieves significant speedups while outperforming existing baselines across five different model backbones. This advancement directly addresses the need for trustworthy deployment and self-refinement mechanisms in large language models.
SpanUQ: Span-Level Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Model Generation
arXiv:2607.05721v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors. We formalize Span-Level Uncertainty Estimation (SLUE), a new task that targets the natural granularity for uncertainty: semantically coherent text spans, each conveying a single assessable unit of meaning. To address this task, we introduce SPANUQ, a lightweight (25M parameter) probe that distills the uncertainty knowledge from expensive multi-sample inference into a single forward pass over LLM hidden states. SPANUQ employs a DETR-style span decoder to simultaneously detect spans and estimate their uncertainty via a Mixture of Beta distribution, trained with a principled combination of Beta NLL regression and contrastive ranking objectives. We construct SPANUQ-BENCH, the first span-level uncertainty benchmark comprising 20K prompts, 293K annotated spans, and continuous soft labels derived from multi-sample claim verification. Experiments on five LLM backbones show that SPANUQ consistently achieves the best span-level uncertainty quality , outperforming the strongest probe baseline and all sampling-based methods while being 10~20x faster. Its DETR-based span detector attains 0.910 F1, surpassing the best heuristic by 39.4%, enabling precise error localization that sequence-level methods cannot provide. The same architecture ports to five LLMs spanning two model families, with one probe trained per backbone, and we additionally observe that sequence-level uncertainty is partially decomposable, suggesting that span-level estimation subsumes sequence-level as a special case. The project page is available damon-demon.github.io/SpanUQ.
Abstract:Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors. We formalize Span-Level Uncertainty Estimation (SLUE), a new task that targets the natural granularity for uncertainty: semantically coherent text spans, each conveying a single assessable unit of meaning. To address this task, we introduce SPANUQ, a lightweight (25M parameter) probe that distills the uncertainty knowledge from expensive multi-sample inference into a single forward pass over LLM hidden states. SPANUQ employs a DETR-style span decoder to simultaneously detect spans and estimate their uncertainty via a Mixture of Beta distribution, trained with a principled combination of Beta NLL regression and contrastive ranking objectives. We construct SPANUQ-BENCH, the first span-level uncertainty benchmark comprising 20K prompts, 293K annotated spans, and continuous soft labels derived from multi-sample claim verification. Experiments on five LLM backbones show that SPANUQ consistently achieves the best span-level uncertainty quality , outperforming the strongest probe baseline and all sampling-based methods while being 10~20x faster. Its DETR-based span detector attains 0.910 F1, surpassing the best heuristic by 39.4%, enabling precise error localization that sequence-level methods cannot provide. The same architecture ports to five LLMs spanning two model families, with one probe trained per backbone, and we additionally observe that sequence-level uncertainty is partially decomposable, suggesting that span-level estimation subsumes sequence-level as a special case. The project page is available this http URL.
Accepted by NeurIPS 2026. The project page is available at this https URL
Computation and Language (cs.CL)
arXiv:2607.05721 [cs.CL]
(or arXiv:2607.05721v2 [cs.CL] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.05721 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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