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SL-BiLEM addresses the critical limitation of standard data-driven models by incorporating physical constraints to maintain predictive validity under policy-induced distribution shifts. The framework achieves a 76% improvement over neural baselines while significantly reducing out-of-domain degradation, offering a robust, interpretable approach for counterfactual analysis in epidemic forecasting. This work provides a principled method for integrating human behavior dynamics into machine learning pipelines for public health decision support.
SL-BiLEM: Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Modeling for Forecasting and Policy Evaluation
arXiv:2605.26704v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points. This renders data-driven models unreliable under distribution shift. We propose \textbf{SL-BiLEM} (Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Model), leveraging physical constraints as regularization for robust extrapolation. The framework decomposes effective transmission as $\beta_{\text{eff}}(t,g) = \beta_0(g) \times m_{\text{policy}}(t) \times m_{\text{media}}(t) \times m_{\text{comp}}(t,g)$, where monotonicity, smoothness, and bounded-jump constraints on the learned compliance function maintain predictive validity under novel policy regimes. Beyond forecasting, SL-BiLEM enables counterfactual analysis for intervention decision support. We validate forecasting on three real-world datasets (cruise ship, school influenza, and school-district COVID-19 surveillance) and evaluate counterfactual recovery on synthetic benchmarks with known ground truth. SL-BiLEM demonstrates: (1) 76\% improvement over neural-mechanistic baselines, with only 53\% OOD degradation versus 1142\% for neural baselines under policy-induced shift; (2) 100\% bootstrap CI coverage across 27 synthetic counterfactual experiments; and (3) Treatment Effect Accuracy exceeding 0.85. These results establish SL-BiLEM as an interpretable tool for public health decision-makers seeking accurate prediction and principled intervention planning.
Important: e-prints posted on arXiv are not peer-reviewed by arXiv; they should not be relied upon without context to guide clinical practice or health-related behavior and should not be reported in news media as established information without consulting multiple experts in the field.
Abstract:Epidemic forecasting faces a fundamental challenge: human behavior dynamically responds to disease spread, creating feedback loops that induce distribution shifts at policy intervention points. This renders data-driven models unreliable under distribution shift. We propose \textbf{SL-BiLEM} (Structured Learnable Behavior-in-the-Loop Epidemic Model), leveraging physical constraints as regularization for robust extrapolation. The framework decomposes effective transmission as $\beta_{\text{eff}}(t,g) = \beta_0(g) \times m_{\text{policy}}(t) \times m_{\text{media}}(t) \times m_{\text{comp}}(t,g)$, where monotonicity, smoothness, and bounded-jump constraints on the learned compliance function maintain predictive validity under novel policy regimes. Beyond forecasting, SL-BiLEM enables counterfactual analysis for intervention decision support. We validate forecasting on three real-world datasets (cruise ship, school influenza, and school-district COVID-19 surveillance) and evaluate counterfactual recovery on synthetic benchmarks with known ground truth. SL-BiLEM demonstrates: (1) 76\% improvement over neural-mechanistic baselines, with only 53\% OOD degradation versus 1142\% for neural baselines under policy-induced shift; (2) 100\% bootstrap CI coverage across 27 synthetic counterfactual experiments; and (3) Treatment Effect Accuracy exceeding 0.85. These results establish SL-BiLEM as an interpretable tool for public health decision-makers seeking accurate prediction and principled intervention planning.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2605.26704 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2605.26704v2 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2605.26704 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite
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