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This paper addresses a critical flaw in agent evaluation methodologies where benchmarks are used both to select workflows and to validate them, leading to biased conclusions. The authors propose Selection-Aware Semantic Stress Testing (\SASST), a protocol that separates discovery tasks from confirmation tasks to ensure robustness against selection bias and overfitting. Empirical results demonstrate that apparent performance gains often vanish under this rigorous stress testing framework, highlighting the necessity for more reliable validation pipelines in interactive agent research.
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Selection-Aware Stress Testing for Interactive Agents

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arXiv:2608.30916v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agent evaluations often use one benchmark to choose a workflow and then search for task types where its advantage weakens, so both conclusions are selected from the same data. We introduce Selection-Aware Semantic Stress Testing (\SASST{}), which learns a task reweighting from pre-execution features on discovery tasks and evaluates the same paired comparison on separate confirmation tasks. The protocol checks support and stability, uses joint bounds for all planned claims, and can return no claim. We prove conditional asymptotic validity under stated cluster assumptions. A forty-cluster audit finds Gaussian undercoverage and conservative Bonferroni $t$ bounds. In one 480-episode $\tau$-bench study, a $3.75$ point discovery gain vanished on confirmation. A second-model study likewise confirmed neither a workflow benefit nor a stable stress rule.

Abstract:Agent evaluations often use one benchmark to choose a workflow and then search for task types where its advantage weakens, so both conclusions are selected from the same data. We introduce Selection-Aware Semantic Stress Testing (\SASST{}), which learns a task reweighting from pre-execution features on discovery tasks and evaluates the same paired comparison on separate confirmation tasks. The protocol checks support and stability, uses joint bounds for all planned claims, and can return no claim. We prove conditional asymptotic validity under stated cluster assumptions. A forty-cluster audit finds Gaussian undercoverage and conservative Bonferroni $t$ bounds. In one 480-episode $\tau$-bench study, a $3.75$ point discovery gain vanished on confirmation. A second-model study likewise confirmed neither a workflow benefit nor a stable stress rule.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Applications (stat.AP); Machine Learning (stat.ML)

arXiv:2608.30916 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2608.30916v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.30916 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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