SDECast: Probabilistic Weather Forecasting in Continuous Time with Neural SDEs

Abstract:Existing machine learning weather forecasting models typically generate forecasts through autoregressive rollouts at a fixed temporal resolution. While highly efficient for long-range prediction, this formulation can suffer from severe error accumulation when used with shorter time steps and does not explicitly encode the locality and temporal continuity of atmospheric dynamics. To address these limitations, we introduce **SDECast**, a Neural Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) framework for continuous-time probabilistic weather forecasting. SDECast extends SDE Matching to learn stochastic dynamics directly in physical space, without requiring repeated SDE simulation during training. On a simulated geophysical flow, we show that SDECast recovers meaningful drift dynamics and faithfully reproduces the underlying continuous-time behavior. We then demonstrate its scalability to global weather forecasting at hourly resolution, where SDECast produces skillful probabilistic forecasts for lead times of up to five days.

Machine Learning (stat.ML); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)

arXiv:2610.03313 [stat.ML]

(or arXiv:2610.03313v1 [stat.ML] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.03313 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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