S2S-JEPA: Predicting the Predictable at Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Timescales

Abstract:The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale, roughly from two weeks to two months ahead, is a critical forecast window for sectors such as agriculture, energy, and water management. Yet, it is widely known as the `predictability desert'. Recent AI weather models excel up to two weeks ahead but deteriorate beyond, largely because they are trained to predict fine-scale details that are neither predictable nor essential at S2S timescales. We argue that a more physically grounded objective is to forecast only the slowly varying components that remain predictable. Computer vision reached the same conclusion with the Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA), which predicts in latent space, discarding unpredictable details. In this work, we introduce S2S-JEPA, which brings the JEPA paradigm to S2S forecasting. It is tailored to this task through design elements from state-of-the-art AI weather models. S2S-JEPA achieves comparable skill to the gold-standard ECMWF physics-based ensemble and surpasses it on multiple metrics at weeks 5 to 6.

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2610.03106 [physics.ao-ph]

(or arXiv:2610.03106v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2610.03106 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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