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This paper advances causal inference in sequential decision-making by formally separating latent confounding from inherent stochasticity within Markov Decision Processes. By introducing nondeterministic causal models, it enables the identification of robust counterfactual policies that remain valid despite irreducible randomness, validated here on a sepsis treatment simulator with hidden diabetic comorbidities. The work addresses a critical gap in current reinforcement learning frameworks where standard deterministic assumptions fail to capture real-world system noise effectively.
Robust Counterfactual Policy Optimisation via Nondeterministic Causal Models
arXiv:2608.02893v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Counterfactual inference approaches for sequential decision-making typically assume deterministic causal models, where all randomness stems from latent variables. However, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are inherently stochastic. We address this by formalising counterfactual policy optimisation under probabilistic nondeterministic causal models, which properly separates latent confounding from irreducible stochasticity, and here propose a first practical optimisation problem for identifying robust counterfactual policies under a sensitivity analysis framework. We validate our approach on a sepsis treatment simulator, where diabetes status acts as a hidden global confounder.
Abstract:Counterfactual inference approaches for sequential decision-making typically assume deterministic causal models, where all randomness stems from latent variables. However, Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are inherently stochastic. We address this by formalising counterfactual policy optimisation under probabilistic nondeterministic causal models, which properly separates latent confounding from irreducible stochasticity, and here propose a first practical optimisation problem for identifying robust counterfactual policies under a sensitivity analysis framework. We validate our approach on a sepsis treatment simulator, where diabetes status acts as a hidden global confounder.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)
arXiv:2608.02893 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2608.02893v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2608.02893 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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