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This study provides a quantitative framework for predicting "grokking," revealing that data complexity is the primary driver of the memorization-to-generalization transition rather than model width. By establishing precise scaling laws, researchers can now better control regime shifts in overparameterized networks through hyperparameter tuning and implicit regularization strategies. These findings offer critical insights into optimizing training dynamics for large-scale machine learning systems.
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Quantifying the Memorization-to-Generalization Transition: Scaling Laws and Phase Structure in Grokking

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arXiv:2609.10657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neural networks trained past memorization frequently undergo a delayed transition to generalization, a phenomenon known as grokking. Despite theoretical progress on \emph{why} this transition occurs, the quantitative structure of \emph{when} it occurs in hyperparameter space remains uncharacterized. We map the memorization-to-generalization boundary across 384 configurations of two-hidden-layer MLPs on modular arithmetic, fitting a power-law scaling relation for generalization onset time: $T_{\mathrm{grok}} \propto H^{-0.27}\, D^{-2.04}\, \eta^{-0.50}\, \lambda^{-0.64}$ ($R^2 = 0.732$; $0.821$ with interactions). The exponent hierarchy reveals that data complexity ($D^{-2.04}$) is the dominant driver of regime transition, not model capacity ($H^{-0.27}$): doubling data accelerates generalization by ${\sim}4\times$, while doubling width yields only ${\sim}1.2\times$. A sharp phase boundary at weight decay $\lambda \gtrsim 1.0$ separates grokking from non-grokking configurations, and weight norm trajectories show monotonic compression during the transition, consistent with implicit regularization selecting low-complexity solutions. These results provide a quantitative foundation for predicting and controlling regime transitions in overparameterized networks.

Abstract:Neural networks trained past memorization frequently undergo a delayed transition to generalization, a phenomenon known as grokking. Despite theoretical progress on \emph{why} this transition occurs, the quantitative structure of \emph{when} it occurs in hyperparameter space remains uncharacterized. We map the memorization-to-generalization boundary across 384 configurations of two-hidden-layer MLPs on modular arithmetic, fitting a power-law scaling relation for generalization onset time: $T_{\mathrm{grok}} \propto H^{-0.27}\, D^{-2.04}\, \eta^{-0.50}\, \lambda^{-0.64}$ ($R^2 = 0.732$; $0.821$ with interactions). The exponent hierarchy reveals that data complexity ($D^{-2.04}$) is the dominant driver of regime transition, not model capacity ($H^{-0.27}$): doubling data accelerates generalization by ${\sim}4\times$, while doubling width yields only ${\sim}1.2\times$. A sharp phase boundary at weight decay $\lambda \gtrsim 1.0$ separates grokking from non-grokking configurations, and weight norm trajectories show monotonic compression during the transition, consistent with implicit regularization selecting low-complexity solutions. These results provide a quantitative foundation for predicting and controlling regime transitions in overparameterized networks.

Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI); Machine Learning (cs.LG)

arXiv:2609.10657 [cs.AI]

(or arXiv:2609.10657v1 [cs.AI] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.10657 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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