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This research addresses the critical issue of overconfidence in LLM leaderboards by demonstrating substantial variability in benchmark rankings across different MMLU subjects. The authors propose modifying hypothesis tests to incorporate these uncertainties, offering a more rigorous framework for comparing large language models and identifying true top performers. This methodological advance is essential for establishing reliable evaluation standards as the field moves beyond simple score comparisons toward nuanced capability assessment.
Quantifying Ranking Uncertainty in LLM Benchmarks
arXiv:2607.16259v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pretrained models are typically ranked on multi-task leaderboards to assess their effectiveness across diverse tasks. Rank confidence intervals were recently introduced as a method to quantify the uncertainty in these rankings by aggregating pairwise hypothesis tests. In this work, we analyze the sources of uncertainty in the knowledge evaluation benchmark MMLU and show how hypothesis tests can be modified to account for their effects. We demonstrate that ranking variability across MMLU subjects is substantial and should be considered when comparing LLMs or identifying the top-performing models.
Abstract:Pretrained models are typically ranked on multi-task leaderboards to assess their effectiveness across diverse tasks. Rank confidence intervals were recently introduced as a method to quantify the uncertainty in these rankings by aggregating pairwise hypothesis tests. In this work, we analyze the sources of uncertainty in the knowledge evaluation benchmark MMLU and show how hypothesis tests can be modified to account for their effects. We demonstrate that ranking variability across MMLU subjects is substantial and should be considered when comparing LLMs or identifying the top-performing models.
Machine Learning (cs.LG); Computation and Language (cs.CL); Machine Learning (stat.ML)
arXiv:2607.16259 [cs.LG]
(or arXiv:2607.16259v1 [cs.LG] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.16259 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)
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