Quantification of Tail-trimming Effects for Interval CVaR Based Nonlinear Regression

arXiv:2601.11420v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The tail trimming strategy is widely adopted for robustness against outlier contamination in statistical learning and operations research. However, it generally lacks the thorough understanding that to what extent the tail-trimming technique is effective for nonlinear regression. In this paper, we address the robust nonlinear regression based on the so-called interval conditional value-at-risk (In-CVaR), which is introduced to guard against outliers by trimming extreme losses. We first analyze the trimming effect of the In-CVaR based estimator under distributional perturbation. Our first finding is that the In-CVaR based estimator is qualitatively robust under distributional perturbation in terms of the Prokhorov metric if and only if the largest portion of losses is trimmed. Furthermore, under sample contamination, we derive a probably approximately correct (PAC) bound for the In-CVaR based estimator, showing that the preliminary covariate filtering that is customary in the literature is not needed for In-CVaR based regression. The nonconvexity of the In-CVaR objective, together with unboundedness of covariates, responses and parameter space create the technical challenges for our developed theory, and thus necessitate the new treatment of the qualitative robustness and PAC analysis. Overall, this study rigorously analyzes robustness properties of In-CVaR based nonlinear regression models, which illustrates to what extent the right tail-trimming of the loss by In-CVaR risk measure is essential and effective for robust nonlinear regression. These theoretical findings are further supported by numerical experiments.