Probabilistic electrical power demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification

arXiv:2609.34120v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The majority of research on electricity consumption forecasting has focused on deterministic approaches, which generate a single point estimate for each time step in the forecasting horizon. However, the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the growing complexity of modern smart grids have introduced greater variability and uncertainty into power-system demand and operation. Consequently, probabilistic forecasting, which quantifies the uncertainty and variability associated with future electricity demand, is becoming increasingly important for reliable power-system planning and operation. This study presents an empirical comparison of four contemporary probabilistic forecasting models for electricity consumption, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations. We have performed comparision on real-world power systems related datasets. Across all power-consumption zones, NGBoost demonstrates superior probabilistic forecasting performance, achieving the lowest MAE and RMSE while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates with high prediction-interval coverage and reasonably narrow intervals. These results indicate that NGBoost offers a more accurate and reliable forecasting framework than Bayesian, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models for the considered electricity consumption data.

Abstract:The majority of research on electricity consumption forecasting has focused on deterministic approaches, which generate a single point estimate for each time step in the forecasting horizon. However, the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the growing complexity of modern smart grids have introduced greater variability and uncertainty into power-system demand and operation. Consequently, probabilistic forecasting, which quantifies the uncertainty and variability associated with future electricity demand, is becoming increasingly important for reliable power-system planning and operation. This study presents an empirical comparison of four contemporary probabilistic forecasting models for electricity consumption, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations. We have performed comparision on real-world power systems related datasets. Across all power-consumption zones, NGBoost demonstrates superior probabilistic forecasting performance, achieving the lowest MAE and RMSE while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates with high prediction-interval coverage and reasonably narrow intervals. These results indicate that NGBoost offers a more accurate and reliable forecasting framework than Bayesian, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models for the considered electricity consumption data.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2609.34120 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2609.34120v1 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2609.34120 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.

Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.

Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.

analiza aiqbench

Probabilistic electrical power demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification

Subiecte conexe