Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Risk Aversion in Language Models

arXiv:2607.02755v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Training AIs to be risk-averse in resources could offer a failsafe in the event that AIs turn out misaligned. Misaligned but risk-averse AIs would tend to prefer low-risk, low-reward strategies like cooperation over high-risk, high-reward strategies like rebellion, limiting the downsides of any misalignment. But we can only feasibly train AIs to be risk-averse on low-stakes gambles, and we will only be safe if their risk aversion generalizes to astronomically-high-stakes gambles. Will it? To shed light on this question, we introduce RiskAverseOOD: a benchmark for measuring how well risk aversion generalizes out of distribution. We then offer some initial results. Using a variety of methods to make Qwen3-8B choose risk-aversely when the stakes are low, we find that we can induce substantial risk aversion when the stakes are astronomically high. From a baseline 2% rate of choosing a safe `Cooperate' option, we see rates around 70% (SFT and tie training) and 52% (DPO). Activation steering scores 78% but hurts capabilities and makes the model excessively risk-averse. We observe similar effects at different scales (Qwen3-1.7B and Qwen3-14B) and across model families (Gemma-3-12B-IT and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct). Overall, we find that risk aversion learned at low stakes can generalize OOD to astronomically high stakes, though not yet consistently enough to serve as a reliable failsafe. Achieving that level of consistency is an open problem.

Abstract:Training AIs to be risk-averse in resources could offer a failsafe in the event that AIs turn out misaligned. Misaligned but risk-averse AIs would tend to prefer low-risk, low-reward strategies like cooperation over high-risk, high-reward strategies like rebellion, limiting the downsides of any misalignment. But we can only feasibly train AIs to be risk-averse on low-stakes gambles, and we will only be safe if their risk aversion generalizes to astronomically-high-stakes gambles. Will it? To shed light on this question, we introduce RiskAverseOOD: a benchmark for measuring how well risk aversion generalizes out of distribution. We then offer some initial results. Using a variety of methods to make Qwen3-8B choose risk-aversely when the stakes are low, we find that we can induce substantial risk aversion when the stakes are astronomically high. From a baseline 2% rate of choosing a safe `Cooperate' option, we see rates around 70% (SFT and tie training) and 52% (DPO). Activation steering scores 78% but hurts capabilities and makes the model excessively risk-averse. We observe similar effects at different scales (Qwen3-1.7B and Qwen3-14B) and across model families (Gemma-3-12B-IT and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct). Overall, we find that risk aversion learned at low stakes can generalize OOD to astronomically high stakes, though not yet consistently enough to serve as a reliable failsafe. Achieving that level of consistency is an open problem.

Machine Learning (cs.LG); Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI)

arXiv:2607.02755 [cs.LG]

(or arXiv:2607.02755v2 [cs.LG] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.02755 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite

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Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Risk Aversion in Language Models

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