Origins and mitigation of double descent in reduced order modeling

Abstract:Latent low-dimensional structure in datasets of natural and engineered systems enables their sparse sensing, or full-state reconstruction from historical data and very few carefully chosen localized measurements. Depending on the reconstruction algorithm, sensor locations, and measurement noise, the reconstruction risk curves demonstrate a diversity of patterns including a dramatic peak in error known as double descent in Machine Learning literature. Here we explore those scenarios under a unified Data-Noise Averaging theory. Qualitatively, we formulate sufficient criteria for double descent to emerge through a catastrophic amplification of a pathological signal in reconstruction. Quantitatively, we predict the detailed risk curves at a fraction of computational cost, trace reconstruction instability to individual sensors and their combinations, and provide regularization mechanisms to mitigate the instability. We demonstrate results for both static reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature patterns and time integration of a reduced order model of a PDE.

Machine Learning (stat.ML); Machine Learning (cs.LG); Dynamical Systems (math.DS); Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)

arXiv:2607.26414 [stat.ML]

(or arXiv:2607.26414v1 [stat.ML] for this version)

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2607.26414 Focus to learn more arXiv-issued DOI via DataCite (pending registration)

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